My Bad Milton

You know, now that I set my formula for 500 plate appearances. I checked... and Milton Bradley had 510 plate appearances, which means he does qualify for the MVP. But A-Rod still has it...

The AL MVP Qualifiers
TIER A
1. Alex Rodriguez - 59 points (8th)
TIER B
2. Milton Bradley - 49 points (17th)
3. Kevin Youkilis - 46 points (3rd...hey there is one right!!!)
TIER C
4. Carlos Quentin - 38 points (5th)
5. Joe Mauer - 36 points (4th)
6. Josh Hamilton - 34 points (7th)
7. Justin Morneau - 32.5 points (2nd...yeah, 2nd on his team)
8. Grady Sizemore - 31.5 points (10th)
9. Nick Markakis - 31 points (NO VOTES!)
TIER D
10. Dustin Pedroia - 25 points (1st...not even 1st in Boston)
RESULT
Pedroia won. Making this a total wash of an MVP. Pedroia barely made the list and although this is an acceptable MVP choice, it is a pretty bad grade and near failure. Writers get a D.

I think of all those, the most interesting find was that Bradley was more valuable than Hamilton. However, Hamilton finished ten spots ahead of Bradley in voting. Both have had troubled pasts. Hamilton was on enough crank to increase productivity in a Chinese toy factory by 600 percent. Bradley has had his share of problems, but most of them come from anger.

Bradley grew up a poor black kid who chose to dedicate his life to baseball which is uncommon in the black community. Hamilton grew up a wealthy white kid who was groomed to be the next phenom baseball player. However, drug and alcohol problems derailed his climb to the Majors. Bradley's anger issues halted him from having lucrative contract offers and made him unwanted by many teams.

So has Milton Bradley overcome more or Josh Hamilton? Hell the man overcame my 500 plate appearance requirement, so I say Milton by a landslide.

The AL top list is intriguing. It has a pair of American Latinos, three men cast off by their first team as lost causes, an angry black man, a few ex football players, an ex hockey player, a guy not offered a division one scholarship, a catcher, a crackhead, a DH, a caveman, a hard-nosed fidget, and a top prospect now voted off a 40 man roster. Thus proving that the game of baseball is the exemplary, definitive metaphor to the American dream. Where height, race, body fat percentage, attitude, and addictions are nothing but side notes and prefaces to living like a rock star and getting paid like a oil tycoon.

The Machiavellian Value Formula, Episode 2: The N.L.

The value formula perfected by this author was proved to be a sound and accurate management of total player value for a given team. So I figured, why not prove it for the National League as well? However, I would like to add in some rules. To be considered for Most Valuable, under my theory, one has to also check off the following:
1.) > 500 plate appearances
2.) Statistics accumulated in another League during the season will not count towards the 500 plate appearances, as the MVP is a league award, not a "Major League Most Valuable Player" award.
3.) A pitcher cannot qualify for the MVP unless they pitch 324 innings in a season; as that is the only way they would be more valuable than a position player. If a pitcher ever pitches 324 innings in a season, he will automatically be awarded the unanimous MVP regardless of statistical performance.
4.) A designated hitter can qualify. However, his VORP and Fielding statistics will be nil.
5.) Cost vs. Reward tie breaker. Should two player tie in points, if one player makes five million dollars or more less than the other player, he will be the MVP. Should they have salaries within five million dollars from one another, they tie for the award.
6.) To be considered an MVP candidate a player must score 20 or above on the MVP formula. Any player with less than 20 points will not be listed in the top finishers.
7.) TIER's. Whatever the top leading tier is (ie: three players finish in tier A), then it is acceptable for any of those players to be voted MVP and I will not critique the vote. However, if a player from Tier F wins the MVP when there are seven players in Tier B, then it is unacceptable.
For example...
UNANIMOUS - Obvious selection for MVP, should not be anyone else winning even in consideration.
TIER A - Assuming no unanimous, any player from this group would be an excellent and near perfect MVP choice.
TIER B - Any player from this group would be a "good" choice.
TIER C - Average choice, and there were clearly better candidates.
TIER D - Pretty bad choice, near failure.
TIER F - Horrendous MVP selection.
No tier - Pretty much a worthless choice, and all players in above Tiers should kidnap this man and beat him to near death until he agrees to burn his MVP trophy in protest.


Ok, so here goes for the National League. Their actual MVP ranking is in (here).
UNANIMOUS
1. Albert Pujols - 70 points **perfect score, utter domination** (1st)
TIER A
2. Lance Berkman - 57.5 points (5th)
3. Chipper Jones - 56 points (12th)
TIER B
4. Hanley Ramirez - 46.5 points (11th)
5. David Wright - 40.5 points (7th)
TIER C
6. Matt Holliday - 31.5 points (18th)
7. Ryan Ludwick - 31 points (16th)
TIER D
8. Chase Utley - 25 points (14th)
RESULT
Pujols was the obvious MVP. Perfect MVP choice.

-Ryan Howard finished second behind Pujols in MVP voting, yet his teammate Chase Utley was drastically more valuable, and he finished 14th in voting. Also, his teammate, Brad Lidge, finished eigth despite pitching in less than five percent of his team's games.
-Even though five Mets got MVP votes, only Wright was worthy. Carlos Delgado finished 9th (ahead of five of the top 8 on my list), yet his teammates Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, were more valuable than Delgado and they barely had any consideration.
-There were no Cubs even sniffing MVP consideration. However, they were first in the league, leading writers feeling compelled to vote for a Cub. That screwy logic led to three Cubs getting votes, including Aramis Ramirez (10th) who failed to even eclisple a .900 OPS for the year. In fact, he finished ahead of Chipper Jones, who had equal the hits in over 100 less at bats! That's right, Chipper could have gone 0 for 100 and had as many as hits as Aramis.
-Three assclowns voted for Jose Valverde for MVP, despite Jose nearly leading the league in blown saves.
-Two Ryan's finished in the top 3 in voting. Howard 2nd, and Ryan Braun 3rd. However, another Ryan, Ludwick that is, completely shattered Braun's statistics in every way. Ludwick even matched his power. They each had 37 home runs. Ludwick was 12 homers shy of Howard. Although Lud's OPS+ was an ungodly 26 points higher than Howard and 22 ahead of Braun.
-Hanley Ramirez played in 153 games for his team. Manny Ramirez played in 53. Their voting? Manny 4th, Hanley 11th. You might argue "The Dodgers made the playoffs" as an argument. However, the Marlins matched the Dodgers with 84 wins, and did so at a fraction of the cost.
-Also, Manny finished 4th. Why was he even in this league? Because his teammates voted him off. He was so un-MVP-esque in Boston that veteran teammates hungry for a World Series cast him off their island. They willingly said to hell with one of the greatest hitters of all time. Yet in 53 games he's an MVP? Not only that, had his team been in any other division they would have been selling at the deadline, not buying.

I hope you have taken away two facts from this article. One - baseball needs to seriously re-vamp their MVP process. And two - Albert Pujols is a man among boys.

Why A-Rod is the Obvious AL MVP

Alex Rodriguez was the blatant and obvious MVP choice this year. And for once, his name hurt him. Had he been an average Joe who happened to dominate offensively like he did in 2008, the MVP would have been nearly unanimous. If he sported a shaved head, a caveman goatee, a knack for fighting with Hall of Fame outfielders, and always sprinting out an infield fly rule...you would be in awe of the way he plays the game. Or maybe if he was four foot seven, weighed 115 pounds, you would vote for him.

Sure, his team did not make the playoffs. However, his team was in the best division in baseball, and by a long shot. Had he played in the NL West, he could have single handily pushed the Rockies back into the postseason. Sure, A-Rod has won three MVP's already, he's filthy rich, and he's on the most hated team in baseball. However, that does not mean he was not the MVP. Let me throw some stats out and A-Rod's statistical rank compared to Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, two Bahston guys who finished ahead of A-Rod in the MVP voting. I will not list flawed statistics, but stats with proven formulas to measure a true MVP.
X = that player did not finish in the top ten

OPS +
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 4th (7 pts)

Runs Created
Rodriguez - 7th (4 pts)
Pedroia - 4th (7 pts)
Youkilis - 6th (5 pts)

Adjusted Batting Runs
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 4th (7 pts)

Batting Wins
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 4th (7 pts)

Offensive Winning Percentage
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 3rd (8 pts)

Value Over Replacement Player
Rodriguez - 1st (10 pts)
Pedroia - 3rd (8 pts)
Youkilis - 9th (2 pts)

Fielding Percentage at Position
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - 2nd (9 pts)
Youkilis - 7th (4 pts)

Zone Rating
Rodriguez - 5th (6 pts)
Pedroia - 2nd (9 pts)
Youkilis - 3rd (8 pts)


NOTE: Milton Bradley dominated nearly every stat above and finished first almost unanimously. However, due to him missing nearly 40 games, I dismissed his MVP credentials. But that is another argument in and of itself. Also, I would not consider pitchers for the MVP award as 30 starts or 70 innings does not warrant you being the most valuable player...sorry.

The Machiavellian Value of Player Formula
Adjusted OPS + Runs Created + Adjusted Batting Runs + Batting Wins + Offensive Win % + VORP + [(Fielding Percentage at Position + Zone Rating) / 2]

First place would be ten points, second nine points, and so on. Tenth place is one point and below tenth there is zero.

Rodriguez - 59
Pedroia - 25
Youkilis - 46

So, while A-Rod is the clear MVP, Youk should have at least won it over his own teammate who was nearly half as valuable.

Jack's Dick-tionary: Closers--The Dennis Eckersley Effect

Closers are a bunch of scam artists.

In the coming weeks we will be seeing Angels' closer Francisco Rodriguez sign a massive contract, possibly returning to the Angels or going to a team like the Mets with an imploding bullpen and a fat wallet.

Just like the statistic created for them, saves, closers are completely overrated and overvalued in Major League Baseball. A closer who blows games for your team on a consistent basis is one of the most aggravating things a fan can go through, but serviceable closers just are not that hard to find. In fact, most are failed starters or converted middle relievers. There is a clear upper echelon of closers, like K-Rod, Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera, but every year a few guys rack up a bunch of saves who had never closed before in their careers.

In 2008, George Sherrill saved 31 games for the Orioles. Before 2008 he had four career saves and was merely a very good reliever who the Orioles decided to put in the ninth inning instead of the eighth, and save themselves a bunch of money on a big-name closer. Same thing for Jeremy Accardo (30) and Al Reyes (26) in 2007. JJ Putz (36) and Chris Ray (33) in 2006. The list goes on.

Even some of today's best closers, like Nathan, started out as experiments like that and stuck in the role when they thrived. Only in very recent years have we seen players drafted and groomed specifically to be closers, such as Huston Street. I hereby dub this the Dennis Eckersley Effect.

There is absolutely nothing special about a closer that separates him from a middle reliever except that he can handle the pressure. If a team has a middle reliever who pitches 60 innings with a decent ERA, chances are he would rack up 30+ saves for a fraction of the cost.

Major League Baseball salaries are out of control in general, but it is especially bad for closers. K-Rod was paid $10 million in 2008, for 68 1/3 innings. That adds up to 205 outs that he recorded, which means he was paid $48,780 per out.

Let's take a top middle reliever from 2008, Carlos Marmol, and compare him with K-Rod. Marmol's ERA was 2.68, not quite at the level of K-Rod's 2.24, but still excellent. Except Marmol pitched more innings, 87 1/3, and was paid $430,000. Divide that out, and Marmol made $1,641 per out (which is still a better hourly wage than any of us will ever see, but that is beside the point).

Not only did Marmol obviously provide better monetary value than K-Rod, but I would argue that he was a more valuable pitcher overall. He pitched almost 20 more innings, his K/9 and BB/9 ratios were better, his WHIP was .36 points better and his opponent batting average was .140(!) compared to K-Rod's .219.

After K-Rod's record-setting 62 saves, that salary will only go up. He strikes me as the definition of a mercenary player and he is in line for a massive payday, for no other reason than that the Angels decided to use him as a closer instead of a setup man.

"Yes! Another $48,000!!"

Remembering the Preacher

"I've got three pitches, my change, my change off my change, and my change off my change off my change."
-Preacher Roe

Former pitcher Elwin Charles "Preacher" Roe passed away earlier this month. He lived 92 years and some change. Roe spent seven of his twelve Major League seasons with the Brooklyn Dodgers, and was a member of the famous Dodger team immortalized in Roger Kahn's classic novel The Boys of Summer. A team which included Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, Duke Snider and Pee Wee Reese. Kahn wrote "When I went forth to cover the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1952, the most cerebral Brooklyn pitcher was a tall, skinny hillbilly named Elwin Charles 'Preacher' Roe."

The left hander retired with a .602 winning percentage, 127 wins, and a 3.43 ERA. He won ten or more games in eight different years and in 1951, at the age of 36, had a 22-3 record with 19 complete games. That season he finished fifth in MVP voting. Roe made five All-Star clubs, led the league in strikeouts one season (1945), and was top ten in ERA five different years. Preacher made three starts in the postseason. In those three games he pitched three complete games, every time against the Yankees, posting a 2.54 ERA with a record of 2-1. His one loss came in 1952 when he lost the game in the 12th inning! Yes, he pitched 11.1 innings that day against a potent Yankee team.

Roe's career numbers might have merited Cooperstown consideration had he not lost a good part of his prime to World War 2 action. Almost all of his twenties were lost to military service as his first full season did not come until age 29. He also spent four seasons with the worst team in the National League at the time, the Pittsburgh Pirates. In addition, Roe had two horrific seasons in 1946 and 1947 due to an injury suffered in the 1945 offseason. The injury... Roe was coaching high school basketball during the offseason, and fractured his skull in a fight with the referee.

Preacher was known as a "smart" pitcher before the term was common lingo. He had arguably the best control in baseball during his time, and struck out a fair share of hitters. He perfected the art of pitching and not throwing. Think of him as a poor man's version of Greg Maddux. At age 34 Roe walked 44 in 212.7 innings. Maddux, at age 34, walked 42 in 249.3 innings.

Roe was also known for his eccentricity. In addition to fighting high school basketball refs, Roe refused to fly in an airplane. Not because of a fear of flying, but because it "made his head hurt." There are differing opinions on how he attained his nickname. Some say he called himself "Preacher" as early as age three because of his admiration for a local preacher. Others argue he was given the nickname because Roe never stopped talking. In a famous Sports Illustrated article after his retirement, Roe admitted to throwing a spitball. Hitters knew of this. They would often come to the plate looking for it, yet Roe said he only threw the pitch a handful of times per season to keep his reputation in tact.

It seems plausible that Roe would have made Cooperstown had he not lost key seasons to the war. Given his solid career, domination in the playoffs, and notoriety and fame in the press, I think he would have made it. Preacher won 114 games during his thirties. Of Hall of Fame starting pitchers who were non 300-game-winners, who pitched after the dead ball era, here is the win totals for their 30's.
Jim Bunning - 150
Dizzy Dean - 3
Don Drysdale - 32
Bob Feller - 89
Whitey Ford - 131
Bob Gibson - 160
Lefty Gomez - 36
Waite Hoyt - 72
Carl Hubbell - 172
Catfish Hunter - 40
Fergie Jenkins - 143
Sandy Koufax - 27
Bob Lemon - 117
Ted Lyons - 107
Juan Marichal - 99
Hal Newhouser - 22
Jim Palmer - 116
Robin Roberts - 107
Red Ruffing - 157

Julio Franco Writes A Spiritual Epic

Tim Raines' case for the Hall of Fame

Former Montreal Expos' star Tim Raines was recently named the manager of the Newark Bears in the independent Atlantic League. After being a coach for the Chicago White Sox from 2004-06, Raines spent last year in anonymity, working as the hitting coach for the class-AA Harrisburg Senators - anonymity that will continue in 2009, as the manager for an independent league team.

Raines should be used to being anonymous, spending the best years of his career playing for (mostly) bad Montreal teams - a fact that may be seriously hurting his Hall of Fame chances. He has not gotten as much attention as other snubs, like Bert Blyleven or Ron Santo, but he might be just as deserving.
Raines is one of the top leadoff hitters in the history of baseball, and belongs in the same category as Rickey Henderson and Lou Brock. Raines would probably have been elected last year, in his first year of eligibility, if not for spending the last six years of his career as a part-time player due to injuries. Had he been a full-time player for a bit longer, he would have reached 3,000 hits and seriously challenged Brock for second all-time in stolen bases. What he did end up with was 2,605 hits and 808 stolen bases, which is good enough for fifth all time.

Those are hardly numbers to be embarrassed by, but Raines' real case lies in how ridiculously good he was in his prime. The Hall of Fame voters love counting numbers, but guys with short careers and amazing primes like Ralph Kiner and Sandy Koufax have been elected before, so there are some precedents showing that a guy like Raines could get in. Raines' career was not even short, it is just that he had a pretty sharp decline once he reached his mid-30s.

I am going to define Raines' prime as 1981-87 (the last year he hit over .300 as a full-time player). Raines was a terror on the basepaths in these years, stealing at least 70 bases in every year but '87. He was excellent in the traditional hitting stats and all over the league leader boards for most of the 1980s; he batted over .300 in five of those seven years, including a batting title in 1986; and he was in the top 10 for walks and triples every year and in the top 10 in on base percentage, runs and hits in six of the seven years.

Besides racking up stolen bases, Raines' skills as a leadoff hitter lie in his OBP, OPS and OPS+. In his prime his OBP was in the high .300s consistently, over .400 from '85-87 and he has a career mark of .385. There are some leadoff hitters like Juan Pierre who give the illusion of being good by hitting singles and stealing bases, but Raines, while not hitting a ton of home runs, was an extra-base machine. His percentage of hits that went for extra bases is 27.3; Henderson's career mark was 28 percent, while Brock is at 25 percent.

Raines was a master of not striking out. His career high in strikeouts was 83, and 966 for a career in which he came to the plate over 10,000 times. He also drew loads of walks - 1,330 in his career - an essential skill for leadoff hitters, and a major reason his OBP was as high as it was.

Lou Brock, in comparison, came to the plate over 11,000 times but drew only 761 walks and had 1,730 strikeouts.

All those extra base hits and walks gave Raines excellent OPSs; he was over .800 in six of his seven prime years, and was at .955 in 1987 - a number that high is almost unheard of for non-power hitters. His OPS+ was top 10 in those same six years, including a string of 138, 151, 145 and 149. Compare those numbers to Brock, and Raines was clearly better - Brock's best year was 146, but he was never higher than 128 in any other year. Brock was over 100 for a larger percentage of his career, but his career mark is only 109, whereas Raines' is 123 - which is getting close to leadoff-god Henderson's mark of 127.

So what does all this tell us? It's clear that Raines' prime was far and away better than Brock, and while Brock's counting stats are better than Raines', they're not that much better. A serious argument could even be made that his career as a whole was better than Brock's. Raines is at least the third-best leadoff hitter of the modern era, was one of the best hitters of the 1980s, a decade that is extremely underrepresented in the Hall of Fame and might be the best Expo of all time, a team that is destined to be just as underrepresented.

So put him in the Hall, where he belongs. His exhibit could even include a game-used vial of cocaine.

Baseball's $100 million men

Sport's Illustrated's Web site recently posted a gallery of baseball's 16 $100 million men. It got me thinking about the success of the players' teams since handing out these massive contracts. The players are: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, Todd Helton, Johan Santana, Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells, Barry Zito, Mike Hampton, Jason Giambi, Carlos Beltran, Ken Griffey Jr., Kevin Brown, Albert Pujols, Carlos Lee and Miguel Cabrera.


"This is how many wins I will give you for your $14.5 million in 2008."

The fundamental problem with handing out contracts like these is that the players are always looking for an extremely long-term deal, and are already established stars, which means they are likely in their late 20s or early 30s. Giving a long-term deal to a player that age means a team will have him until his late 30s at least, and will be paying him the most during those later years since the salaries in these contracts typically go up each year. A team that hands out a contract like this get a few years of the player's prime, but they will end up paying him the most during his later (and likely, worst) years.

The other problem is that teams that blow so much money on one player do not leave enough money left over to surround their superstar with other quality players. As the Rays proved this year, a championship-caliber team does not need a high-priced superstar to be successful.

Let's take a look at how these teams with loose wallets have fared since signing their big-name free agents:

Alex Rodriguez - $275 million, 10 years
Yankees, signed in 2008
Age when contract will be complete: 42
World Series' won by Yankees since signing: 0

Derek Jeter - $189 million, 10 years
Yankees, signed in 2001
Age when contract will be complete: 37
World Series' won by Yankees since signing: 0

Manny Ramirez - $160 million, 8 years
Red Sox, signed in 2000
Contract completed at age 36
World Series' won by Red Sox since signing: 2

Todd Helton - $141 million, 9 years
Rockies, signed in 2001, took effect in 2003
Age when contract will be complete: 39
World Series' won by Rockies since signing: 0

Johan Santana - $137.5 million, 6 years
Mets, signed in 2008
Age when contract will be complete: 34
World Series' won by Mets since signing: 0

Alfonso Soriano - $136 million, 8 years
Cubs, signed in 2007
Age when contract will be complete: 38
World Series' won by Cubs since signing: 0

Vernon Wells - $126 million, 7 years
Blue Jays, signed in 2007
Age when contract will be complete: 35
World Series' won by Blue Jays since signing: 0

Barry Zito - $126 million, 7 years
Giants, signed in 2007
Age when contract will be complete: 35
World Series' won by Giants since signing: 0

Mike Hampton - $121 million, 8 years
Rockies, signed in 2001
Contract completed at age 35
World Series' won by Rockies since signing: 0

Jason Giambi - $120 million, 7 years
Yankees, signed in 2002
Contract completed at age 37
World Series' won by Yankees since signing: 0

Carlos Beltran - $119 million, 7 years
Mets, signed in 2005
Age when contract will be completed: 34
World Series' won by Mets since signing: 0

Ken Griffey Jr. - $116.5 million, 9 years
Reds, signed in 2000
Contract completed at age 38
World Series' won by Reds since signing: 0

Kevin Brown - $105 million, 7 years
Dodgers, signed in 1999
Contract completed at age 40
World Series' won by Dodgers since signing: 0

Albert Pujols - $100 million, 7 years
Cardinals, signed in 2004
Age when contract will be complete: 30
World Series' won by Cardinals since signing: 1

Carlos Lee - $100 million, 6 years
Astros, signed in 2006
Age when contract will be complete: 36
World Series' won by Astros since signing: 0

Miguel Cabrera - $153.3 million, 8 years
Tigers, signed in 2008
Age when contract will be complete: 32
World Series' won by Tigers since signing: 0

Total - $2.22 billion, 124 years
Combined World Series' won: 3

The moral of the story is that paying players big money does not even come close to guaranteeing a World Series appearance or win, but teams still hand it out because if they do not some other team will. If a team does decide to do it, they should make sure it is a bona fide superstar (Rodriguez, Pujols), that the player is not already old at the time of signing (Brown) and that the player has not shown even the slightest sign of decline (Zito).

There are some clear winners (Pujols, Ramirez) and losers (Zito, Hampton, Brown, Giambi) in this group, and some that the jury is still out on (Cabrera, Santana, Soriano). Others, like Rodriguez and Jeter, have played well but their teams have nothing to show for it.

The way things are working now, if a team does not want to pay somebody's huge contract demands, that player can always find a more willing team waiting with open arms and an open wallet. What I want to see this offseason is for every team to refuse to hand out huge contracts and force superstars to futilely hold out for the big money. How awesome would it be to see Mark Teixeira or Francisco Rodriguez starting the 2009 season with the Long Island Ducks or Atlantic City Surf?

Prospect Watch: Tommy Hanson

SCOTTSDALE-The Arizona Fall League came to a close today as Mesa Solar Sox faced the Phoenix Desert Dogs, with the Desert Dogs prevailing 10-4. 6 of the 9 starters for Mesa were prospects from either the Tigers or Braves organization, with Matt Young and Van Pope representing the Braves in the field. Starting and catching today were two of the organization's most heralded prospects--slugging catcher Tyler Flowers and Tommy Hanson, who has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the minors this year.


Hanson has logged 28 2/3 innings coming into the championship game today and lead the AFL in wins (5), ERA (0.63), and K's (49). Today's loss to Phoenix had nothing to do with Hanson's performance, as he wrapped up his surreal AFL season by going 5 innings while yielding only 1 BB, 3 hits, and 1 ER, while striking out 8. Hanson surrendered only one extra base hit, a triple high off the CF wall in his last inning of work. Hanson used his fastball, which generally sits between 92 and 95 MPH, to blow away hitter after hitter and made liberal use of a hammer curve, using it on three consecutive pitches to strike out Michael McKenry in the fourth.

Hanson's dominance in the AFL builds upon a minor league season in which he went 11-5 in 25 starts split between Class A Myrtle Beach and AA Mississippi, while posting a solid 163 K's and 2.41 ERA in 138 innings.

Tommy Hanson's numbers for the year:

TM	LG	G	GS	W	L	ERA	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	AVG
MB	CAR	7	7	3	1	0.90	0	0	40.0	15	6	4	0	11	49	.116
MIS	SOU	18	18	8	4	3.03	1	1	138.0	85	45	37	9	52	163	.175
MSS	AFL	8	8	5	0	0.80	0	0	33.7	13	3	3	1	8	57	.115
TOT	N/A	33	33	16	5	1.87	1	1	211.7	113	54	44	10	71	269	.168

Given his utter dominance on the mound this season, Tommy Hanson should be vying for a rotation spot in spring training. Given the current situation with the rotation, he should slide nicely into the 4 or 5 spot depending on what Frank Wren decides to do over the offseason. He has outstanding stuff, advanced control for his age, and a knowledge of pitching beyond his years. He has very little left to work on at the minor league level, other than the cultivation of his less-than-stellar mustache.

Halloween With David Wright and Chipper Jones

A vote for Joe Mauer

Boston second baseman Dustin Pedroia won this year's American League MVP award Tuesday, on the strength of a .326 average, winning a Gold Glove, playing for the Red Sox and being the type of scrappy player that sportswriters love. It was a decent choice, and arguments can certainly be made for Pedroia, but I think the better choice is Minnesota Twins' catcher Joe Mauer.


To make my case, I will break down batting and fielding statistics for both players, and how they compare to each other and the rest of the league.

Both players were on most American League offensive leaderboards, and they actually had somewhat similar seasons.

Mauer won the batting title with a .328 average while Pedroia was right behind at .326.

Pedroia tied for the league lead in hits with Ichiro Suzuki, with 213, but Pedroia also had more than 100 at bats more than Mauer, who had 176 hits. This can also account for Pedroia having the edge in total bases.

Pedroia scored more runs, but he also batted higher in the order and had much better hitters around him to drive him in. Mauer batted third, ahead of Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel - together, those three were the only above average hitters in the Twins lineup - Denard Span could qualify as "above average" as well, but he was only in Minnesota for half the year.

A common knock on Mauer is his lack of RBI production for a middle-of-the-order hitter, with 85 in 2008. But Mauer also had Carlos Gomez (he of the .296 OBP) batting leadoff for the first half of the year and Alexi Casilla batting second (.333 OBP). It is kind of hard to drive in runs when nobody is on base in front of you - I don't have the data in front of me, but I would bet good money that Mauer led the league in meaningless 2-out hits.

I should add that I think RBIs are a poor statistic for measuring hitters, but they still mean a lot to most sportswriters and voters.

Pedroia has an obvious edge in power, especially for a middle infielder, with 17 home runs. Mauer hit nine, and his career high is only 13, in 2006.

What Mauer lacks in power, he makes up for in on-base percentage. He had a .413 OBP, second only to Milton Bradley's ridiculous .436 on the league leaderboard. Mauer ranked seventh in the league in walks, with 84, while Pedroia had only 50. Mauer's walks to strikeouts ratio (1.68) also beats Pedroia (.96).

Something else to keep in mind as far as power numbers go, is that even with the Mauer's lack of home runs, his OPS (.864) was almost identical to Pedroia's (.869). OPS being that close is basically Mauer's walks cancelling out Pedroia's home runs. On the surface a home run is obviously more valuable than a walk, but think about this: would you rather have a player who walks 6.4 percent more of the time, thereby being a potential run for his team that many more times (Mauer), or a guy who hits eight more home runs (Pedroia).

Looking into OPS+, Mauer again has the advantage at 137, against Pedroia's mark of 122.

If you dig deeper into more advanced statistics, Mauer still has the advantage. Mauer had a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .350, while Pedroia's was .336. It could be argued that Mauer was just luckier, but while BABIP can show if a player was extremely lucky or unlucky, it is not completely based on luck - if a player makes better, and harder, contact, more hits will fall in because it gives the fielders less time to react. Therefore, BABIP needs to be looked at with line drive percentage; Mauer's was 22.6 percent while Pedroia's was 21.2 percent. This is not a huge difference, but Mauer is still ahead, plus, Pedroia was plenty lucky himself in BABIP.

Looking into Win Probability Added (WPA), which measures, according to www.aarongleeman.com, "how much impact specific plays had on the outcome of each game and assigns that value to the individual players responsible," Mauer (4.88) again has an advantage over Pedroia (3.29).

Moving on to fielding, Pedroia was clearly one of the best defensive second baseman in the AL - he ranked second with a .992 fielding percentage (topped only by Mark Ellis, with .993), second in zone rating with .854 (beaten by Ellis again, with .868) and second in errors with six (second to, who else, Ellis, who had four).

Mauer was similarly stellar at catcher. He led all AL catchers with a .997 fielding percentage and committed only three errors. His caught-stealing percentage of .261 was topped only by Jose Molina, Dioner Navarro and Ivan Rodriguez.

Both players are top defensive players in the league at their respective positions and won Gold Gloves (not that that award matters, however...), but defense is not the only consideration. If that was the only criteria, we would be analyzing AL MVP Mark Ellis right now.

Both are also top offensive players at their positions; they are very similar hitters for the most part, with Mauer having the edge in OBP and Pedroia having the edge in power.

But for me, the decision comes down to how valuable they are at that position. Quick, name off above average AL second basemen: Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Placido Polanco and Alexei Ramirez, to name a few. Now name off above average AL catchers: Mauer, Navarro, AJ Pierzynski, a declining Rodriguez and not much else.

Therefore, while Pedroia is a solid selection, Mauer would get my vote for being such an excellent hitter (as good, if not better, than Pedroia) while playing a much less common and more difficult position, and playing it well.

The First Member of the Hall of Shame Is....

STERLING -- With great disdain and discomfort I would like to announce the first member of the Hall of Shame. JBB's powers that be will induct a new member to the H.O.S. periodically. Factors such as an abysmal statistical output, minimal cost vs. reward, and overall downright damning damage to the organization's competitive performance will all be factored into who is truly Shit material.

The first inductee to the Hall, without further a due, is none other than alleged pitcher Danny Kolb. Alleged in the since that a solid attorney could argue he was not a pitcher at all during his stint with Atlanta, rather a batting practice coach. In fact, catcher Ivan Rodriguez, after losing to Bobby Abreu at the 2005 Home Run Derby, proclaimed "I'm disappointed Dan [Kolb] could not make the trip. I think if I kept a good eye at the plate and avoided taking a walk, his sinker could have won this Derby for me."

Dan was traded to Atlanta during the previous offseason. Kolb was a pitcher while with the Milwaukee Brewers the two years preceding his arrival in the peach state. In 03 he racked up a respectable 21 saves in 41.3 innings, with an ERA+ of 219 (100 is League average). To put that in to perspective, in John Smoltz's four years of closing, his ERA+ was better than that only once. The Kolbinator followed up the next year, 2004, with 39 saves and a 146 ERA+. Smoltzie's ERA+ was 157 in 04 with 44 saves.

So, it seems reasonable that with Smoltz heading back to the starting rotation, Dan Kolb would be a suitable replacement right? Braves' GM John Schuerholz went on to trade top pitching prospect Jose Capellan and a player to be named later for Kolb. While Jose has yet to find success at the Major League level, he was a prospect with huge upside at the time. So Capellan and 3.4 million dollars later, what kind of numbers did Kolb throw up (literally) for Atlanta? In 57.7 torturous innings, he posted a 5.93 ERA, 71 ERA+, eight losses, and went 11 for 18 in save opps. Kolb was thankfully demoted from the closer's role later in the season, thus lessening his chance to break the single season blown save record he could have easilly attained.

In just 0.4 more innings in 05 compared to 04, Kolb gave up a whopping 28 more hits than in 04, 14 more walks, and 19 more earned runs. His failure caused effective relievers in the Braves' pen like Chris Reitsma to have to step into roles they were not accustomed to, which led to one of the worst bullpens in baseball. His downfall also caused the Braves to waste their first round pick in the June amateur draft on a college relief pitcher named Joey Devine, with hopes he could provide an immediate fix. Devine was subsequently rushed through the minor league season and set up for failure at the big league level. He gave up a grand slam in his first inning of work in the Majors, and posted a 12.60 ERA. Despite only pitching five innings in the Majors, Devine was the one placed onto the Braves' postseason roster and not the preseason closer, Dan Kolb. Devine, a guy a few months removed from pitching to English majors in the NCAA was now about to be placed on a postseason roster over Kolb, a year removed from 39 saves.

The saga continues. In an 18 inning marathon of one of the most classic NLDS games of all time, the last man standing in the Braves pen was Joey. In lieu of this writer's painful flashbacks to this game, I will cut this short and say Devine gave up a walkoff, game ending, season ending home run to the Astros three foot four utility infielder Chris Burke. There is no one more deserving than Illinois State alum Dan Kolb, the proud son of Sterling, Illinois. Dan and his family now reside in Sterling where he works first shift at a local title pawn establishment. He also works part time at night and the occasional weekend as a sushi chef at a local buffet.

Other Notable Ramifications of the Dan Kolb Debacle...
- Braves were forced to trade for Kyle Farnsworth in mid season. While effective during the season, they traded two pitching prospects. One of which, Zach Miner, has shown effectiveness in the Majors as both a starter and reliever. Also, Farnsworth imploded in the postseason that year, causing the likes of Joey Devine to be hung out to die in the 18th inning.
- By panically taking a college reliever to help them that season in the June draft, the Braves passed up on Colby Rasmus, now of the most promising outfield prospects in baseball.
-Due to Devine's poor performance in his short time in Atlanta, the club feared his pitching psyche might have been damaged and a change of scenery was in order. Devine was traded in the 2007 offseason for A's outfielder Mark Kotsay. A deal that backfired as the Braves missed the playoffs by a long shot, and Devine had 0.59 ERA with Oakland in 2008.

The Moose Phones It In

MOOSEPORT -- All-Star pitcher Mike Mussina has called it a career. The Moose had a stellar career piling up 270 wins, five All-Star appearances, seven Gold Gloves, and an amazing knack for finishing just short of excellence his entire career.

On the last start in the last season of his career, Mike accumulated twenty wins for the first time in eighteen seasons; the first man to win 20 in his last season since Sandy Koufax. In fact, 2008 was Moose's best season since the beginning of the Bush administration. He pitched over 200 innings, won 20 games, and had an ERA+ of 132. So with a sure-fire chance to take a team to the bank for a few more years, and a solid chance to become a member of the 300 win club and the 3,000 strikeout club, why would he retire? Simple - Moose wants to be remembered as one of the greatest pitchers to never have his mug on a plaque in Cooperstown. Or I should say, Moose does not want to be remembered at all.

Mussina said Wednesday afternoon "I was just too good last year. I worry if I put up another season like that I'll be dangerously close to Cooperstown consideration." He added "I have a real fear of speeches, and I just don't know if I can handle getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. I've always dodged the Cy Young award thank God, and I've gone too far to be getting a plaque at this stage of my life. In another couple of seasons I will amass 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts, and I just can't live with that."

Mussina managed to never quite get over the hump from great pitcher to dominating pitcher. In his career he finished with 18-19 wins five times, top six in Cy Young voting nine times, top ten in ERA eleven times, and top ten in K's ten times. However, Moose never won a Cy Young, or any other pitching award for that matter. Moose also never led the league in strikeouts or claimed an ERA title. He retired with 270 wins, a career 3.68 ERA, and 2,813 strikeouts.

Moose was stellar in 16 postseason series going 7-9 with a 3.42 ERA. Nine different seasons he pitched in October, two of which he made it to the World Series. However, Moose will retire without a World Series ring. With the Yankees being active in the free agent market and hoping to eclipse a seven trillion dollar payroll for 2009, it is more than plausible they have a good chance to win the World Series next season, and provide enough run support over the next two to three seasons for Moose to get 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. Therefore, what has Moose chased for his entire career?

It seems obvious, whatever it was, it wasn't plaques on his wall, money in his brokerage account, nor rings on his fingers. Moose, simply wanted to throw a baseball and have fun for eighteen years. History will forget Mike Mussina, and maybe he wanted it that way? His name will not echo across eternity. He did not chase immortality like Roger Clemens, he simply pitched, and pitched damn well.

So I say, when the Moose comes up for Hall of Fame induction, the writers ignore his inability to get over the hump, and recognize this is a man whose demeanor would not drive him to banned substances and backstabbing. He is a guy who does not strive off fame or recognition. This is a guy who went out and did his job, and did it damn well for eighteen seasons. Furthermore, he did it naturally for eighteen seasons against hitters on enough juice to put horses on the endangered species list. So, when Mike Mussina's name is placed on the ballot for Hall enshrinement in five years, he should not be overlooked due to trivial benchmarks of excellence. He should be enshrined, and enshrined before Roger Clemens. Not because he had a better career or less blank space on his walls, but because his ambition was always a virtue and he never allowed it to become a vice.

The First Annual "The MVP is Irrelevant Because the People Voting are Idiots" Rant

I've ceased trying to understand why we let some people vote on the MVP. Typically, one player is so damn dominant that the choice is clear cut and doesn't afford Woody Paige the opportunity to vote for a guy because he's a gritty grinder who plays the game right. However, whenever there is not an obvious, Barry Bonds circa 2001-2004 player, the writers tend to...well...you get Jimmy Rollins last year (Rollins was actually quite deserving, as he made the most outs of anyone in the league and had an OPS at least 70 points lower than anyone in the Top 10 not named Jake Peavy. Over the last two months, all I've been hearing is how Dustin Pedroia is a "legitimate MVP candidate" and now he has been crowned as the Junior Circuit's Most Valuable Player.

Firstly, saying something is "legitimate" does not make it so. That would be like me saying that David Wright was the legitimate Silver Slugger winner at 3B. Secondly, Dustin Pedroia as the AL MVP is egregious in that he wasn't even the most valuable player in his division. Hell, he wasn't even the most valuable on his team. Kevin Youkilis OPS'd .949 (143+) to Pedroia's .869 (122+). He was more than twenty percent better than the little guy at the plate this year before taking into account the fact that Youkilis jumped from 1st to 3rd and even the OF for the Sox, while providing Gold Glove calibur defense. To all of which some say that Pedroia was more valuable because he provided of all this offense at a key defensive position (which sounds vaguely familiar to the Jimmy Rollins claims from '07).

If one were to look at the WARP3, which takes defensive positioning and league into account, Pedroia holds the slight advantage, worth approximately a single win more than Youk. This is in spite of the fact that Youk's defensive numbers fell dramatically when he made about half his errors in the month that he was forced to play out of position at 3rd. Pedroia's offensive value is also somewhat inflated when the number is normalized, since his .870 OPS is being compared to such offensive stalwarts as Brian Roberts (.830), Javier Lopez (.765), and Alexei Ramirez (.790). The only second baseman who hit remotely close to him is Ian Kinsler who outperformed Pedroia until he was lost for the year. Youk's offensive value is degraded as his normalization occurs against comparisons to notorious sluggers Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Jason Giambi, and Carlos Pena--all of whom OPS'd over .860.

Also, Youk managed only 3 less RC (123-120) than Pedroia in over 100 less PAs. The dude was just a beast this year. Sure, having a 5' 7" guy win the MVP is a great story (if you're Dan Shaughnessy), but having a guy on his own team win that out-performed him in every way all year, or one of the top two guys in VORP in the AL, A-Rod and Sizemore, win makes a hell of a lot more sense.

I have no beef with Pujols winning in the NL, but in a mini-rant, there is no way in hell Chipper Jones finishes 12th. Carlos Delgado was cast aside and "washed up" according to everyone and their mother by July. Aramis Ramirez had a good year, but "only" mangaed a 128 OPS+ to Chipper's 174. David Wright I feel like I addressed above in re: it's a joke he beat Larry for anything. And how the hell does Hanley finish 11th? The guy was second in ALL OF BASEBALL in VORP. He OPS'd .940 FROM THE SS POSITION. How the hell does J-Roll win it hitting a paltry .860 ish and Hanley can't even get any damn consideration at all?

It's time to revisit letting completely inept people vote for something they may or may not know about.

Wren and Towers Call It Quits

ATLANTA -- Two general managers in baseball are giving one another the silent treatment. Padres' Kevin Towers and the Braves' Frank Wren are no longer discussing a deal which could bring 2007 National League Cy Young award winner Jake Peavy to Atlanta for shortstop Yunel Escobar and prospects.

In a phone interview from his weekend cabin in the Appalachian Mountains, which Frank calls 'The Wren's Nest', the Braves GM said "We've had a communication breakdown. I mean we've been talking for a month now, and I just want Kevin to commit and he won't do it." Wren emotionally added "I've offered him a future no one else can give him, and he just says he wants more, more, more! I send him texts all day long and he just replies with one word replies, so I'm done!"

Towers refused phone calls from JBB offices, but sent an e-mail statement which read "Frank and I had a good thing going while it lasted. However, I have to move in another direction. Right now Jim [Hendry] is promising me stability and upside Frank cannot ensure. While I wish Frank all the best, I have to ---- what I can ---- while I can ---- it."

Wren, distraught, is moving on. Reportedly in the mix to sign free agent pitchers A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe, the GM will have to win an aggressive bidding war between several other teams offering a king's ransom for the pitchers. While Wren also made a push for the most coveted free agent on the market, C.C. Sabathia, it looks to be all for not. In an effort to reclaim their annual payroll championship, the Yankees have offered C.C. over thirty million dollars more than any other club. Hank Steinbrenner, the team's co-chairman, said "We feel really excited about bringing another payroll title to the Bronx. We're really setting up a dynasty at this point. I mean, we may very well eclipse a quarter billion dollar payroll this year! It's not how you spend your money in baseball, but how much you spend that equals success. Just look at the Devil Rays, it's no wonder the Phillies, of all teams, beat them!"

Ultimately, Frank Wren may have to resort to overpaying for Derek Lowe who would be approaching 40 at the end of his next contract. Frank said of Lowe "He may not be an ace for us, but I have no doubt he's a king." Meanwhile, Frank's queen Kevin Towers may have to re-think his stubbornness for commitment with the Cubs re-signing Ryan Dumpster to a lucrative 52 million dollar elbow insurance policy. So the question remains: Will Frank and Kev call it quits, or become partners once again?

About Us

I Am Jack's Broken Bat is a blog involving two guys, real-life investigative journalism, a semi-coherent knowledge of the English language, a love for sports, and two small basements, both located in their mother's homes. In 2008 R. Fukuoka Henderson and J. Martin Machiavelli got pissed off because Frank Wren wanted to sign Ryan Dempster but were later relieved when he failed in doing so. Later on, in a debate over who they would have taken in round 17 of the 2002 MLB draft, the two began to chuckle when they recalled that in that draft the Mets selected Scott Kazmir. Kazmir was later traded for Victor Zambrano, a real life version of a Sony Walkman. In a morbid need to express the ridiculousness of the powers that be in the multi-billion dollar American institution of Major League Baseball, we have founded JBB. We will try to enlighten and entertain. We will probably fail.