Monday, November 24, 2008

Jack's Dick-tionary: Closers--The Dennis Eckersley Effect

Closers are a bunch of scam artists.

In the coming weeks we will be seeing Angels' closer Francisco Rodriguez sign a massive contract, possibly returning to the Angels or going to a team like the Mets with an imploding bullpen and a fat wallet.

Just like the statistic created for them, saves, closers are completely overrated and overvalued in Major League Baseball. A closer who blows games for your team on a consistent basis is one of the most aggravating things a fan can go through, but serviceable closers just are not that hard to find. In fact, most are failed starters or converted middle relievers. There is a clear upper echelon of closers, like K-Rod, Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera, but every year a few guys rack up a bunch of saves who had never closed before in their careers.

In 2008, George Sherrill saved 31 games for the Orioles. Before 2008 he had four career saves and was merely a very good reliever who the Orioles decided to put in the ninth inning instead of the eighth, and save themselves a bunch of money on a big-name closer. Same thing for Jeremy Accardo (30) and Al Reyes (26) in 2007. JJ Putz (36) and Chris Ray (33) in 2006. The list goes on.

Even some of today's best closers, like Nathan, started out as experiments like that and stuck in the role when they thrived. Only in very recent years have we seen players drafted and groomed specifically to be closers, such as Huston Street. I hereby dub this the Dennis Eckersley Effect.

There is absolutely nothing special about a closer that separates him from a middle reliever except that he can handle the pressure. If a team has a middle reliever who pitches 60 innings with a decent ERA, chances are he would rack up 30+ saves for a fraction of the cost.


Major League Baseball salaries are out of control in general, but it is especially bad for closers. K-Rod was paid $10 million in 2008, for 68 1/3 innings. That adds up to 205 outs that he recorded, which means he was paid $48,780 per out.

Let's take a top middle reliever from 2008, Carlos Marmol, and compare him with K-Rod. Marmol's ERA was 2.68, not quite at the level of K-Rod's 2.24, but still excellent. Except Marmol pitched more innings, 87 1/3, and was paid $430,000. Divide that out, and Marmol made $1,641 per out (which is still a better hourly wage than any of us will ever see, but that is beside the point).

Not only did Marmol obviously provide better monetary value than K-Rod, but I would argue that he was a more valuable pitcher overall. He pitched almost 20 more innings, his K/9 and BB/9 ratios were better, his WHIP was .36 points better and his opponent batting average was .140(!) compared to K-Rod's .219.

After K-Rod's record-setting 62 saves, that salary will only go up. He strikes me as the definition of a mercenary player and he is in line for a massive payday, for no other reason than that the Angels decided to use him as a closer instead of a setup man.

"Yes! Another $48,000!!"

3 comments:

  1. Posts to the site...
    J. Martin ... 6 (2 pics)
    B. Evans ... 4
    R. Fukuoka ... 2

    The Americans carrying the load yet again.

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  2. Carlos Marmol was paid under $5,000 per out. Mariano Rivera was paid $212,000 per out.

    Irony. One guy gets paid a used Honda Civic per out and another guy gets paid a five bedroom, new home in Tucson.

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  3. Also...
    Starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco made 390K last year. He won 15, started 32 games, struck out 186, piled up 212 innings, and an ERA+ of 121.

    He made $1,837 per out. The equivalent to a half hour session at the Bunny Farm in Las Vegas. What if he had been in the bullpen? If he could dominate in the bullpen like he did starting, he'd get a similar raise, and his arm would last longer...resulting in more money for relieving!

    ReplyDelete