Showing posts with label MVP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MVP. Show all posts

Sunday, November 30, 2008

The Machiavellian Value Formula, Episode 2: The N.L.


The value formula perfected by this author was proved to be a sound and accurate management of total player value for a given team. So I figured, why not prove it for the National League as well? However, I would like to add in some rules. To be considered for Most Valuable, under my theory, one has to also check off the following:
1.) > 500 plate appearances
2.) Statistics accumulated in another League during the season will not count towards the 500 plate appearances, as the MVP is a league award, not a "Major League Most Valuable Player" award.
3.) A pitcher cannot qualify for the MVP unless they pitch 324 innings in a season; as that is the only way they would be more valuable than a position player. If a pitcher ever pitches 324 innings in a season, he will automatically be awarded the unanimous MVP regardless of statistical performance.
4.) A designated hitter can qualify. However, his VORP and Fielding statistics will be nil.
5.) Cost vs. Reward tie breaker. Should two player tie in points, if one player makes five million dollars or more less than the other player, he will be the MVP. Should they have salaries within five million dollars from one another, they tie for the award.
6.) To be considered an MVP candidate a player must score 20 or above on the MVP formula. Any player with less than 20 points will not be listed in the top finishers.
7.) TIER's. Whatever the top leading tier is (ie: three players finish in tier A), then it is acceptable for any of those players to be voted MVP and I will not critique the vote. However, if a player from Tier F wins the MVP when there are seven players in Tier B, then it is unacceptable.
For example...
UNANIMOUS - Obvious selection for MVP, should not be anyone else winning even in consideration.
TIER A - Assuming no unanimous, any player from this group would be an excellent and near perfect MVP choice.
TIER B - Any player from this group would be a "good" choice.
TIER C - Average choice, and there were clearly better candidates.
TIER D - Pretty bad choice, near failure.
TIER F - Horrendous MVP selection.
No tier - Pretty much a worthless choice, and all players in above Tiers should kidnap this man and beat him to near death until he agrees to burn his MVP trophy in protest.


Ok, so here goes for the National League. Their actual MVP ranking is in (here).
UNANIMOUS
1. Albert Pujols - 70 points **perfect score, utter domination** (1st)
TIER A
2. Lance Berkman - 57.5 points (5th)
3. Chipper Jones - 56 points (12th)
TIER B
4. Hanley Ramirez - 46.5 points (11th)
5. David Wright - 40.5 points (7th)
TIER C
6. Matt Holliday - 31.5 points (18th)
7. Ryan Ludwick - 31 points (16th)
TIER D
8. Chase Utley - 25 points (14th)
RESULT
Pujols was the obvious MVP. Perfect MVP choice.

-Ryan Howard finished second behind Pujols in MVP voting, yet his teammate Chase Utley was drastically more valuable, and he finished 14th in voting. Also, his teammate, Brad Lidge, finished eigth despite pitching in less than five percent of his team's games.
-Even though five Mets got MVP votes, only Wright was worthy. Carlos Delgado finished 9th (ahead of five of the top 8 on my list), yet his teammates Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, were more valuable than Delgado and they barely had any consideration.
-There were no Cubs even sniffing MVP consideration. However, they were first in the league, leading writers feeling compelled to vote for a Cub. That screwy logic led to three Cubs getting votes, including Aramis Ramirez (10th) who failed to even eclisple a .900 OPS for the year. In fact, he finished ahead of Chipper Jones, who had equal the hits in over 100 less at bats! That's right, Chipper could have gone 0 for 100 and had as many as hits as Aramis.
-Three assclowns voted for Jose Valverde for MVP, despite Jose nearly leading the league in blown saves.
-Two Ryan's finished in the top 3 in voting. Howard 2nd, and Ryan Braun 3rd. However, another Ryan, Ludwick that is, completely shattered Braun's statistics in every way. Ludwick even matched his power. They each had 37 home runs. Ludwick was 12 homers shy of Howard. Although Lud's OPS+ was an ungodly 26 points higher than Howard and 22 ahead of Braun.
-Hanley Ramirez played in 153 games for his team. Manny Ramirez played in 53. Their voting? Manny 4th, Hanley 11th. You might argue "The Dodgers made the playoffs" as an argument. However, the Marlins matched the Dodgers with 84 wins, and did so at a fraction of the cost.
-Also, Manny finished 4th. Why was he even in this league? Because his teammates voted him off. He was so un-MVP-esque in Boston that veteran teammates hungry for a World Series cast him off their island. They willingly said to hell with one of the greatest hitters of all time. Yet in 53 games he's an MVP? Not only that, had his team been in any other division they would have been selling at the deadline, not buying.

I hope you have taken away two facts from this article. One - baseball needs to seriously re-vamp their MVP process. And two - Albert Pujols is a man among boys.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The First Annual "The MVP is Irrelevant Because the People Voting are Idiots" Rant


I've ceased trying to understand why we let some people vote on the MVP. Typically, one player is so damn dominant that the choice is clear cut and doesn't afford Woody Paige the opportunity to vote for a guy because he's a gritty grinder who plays the game right. However, whenever there is not an obvious, Barry Bonds circa 2001-2004 player, the writers tend to...well...you get Jimmy Rollins last year (Rollins was actually quite deserving, as he made the most outs of anyone in the league and had an OPS at least 70 points lower than anyone in the Top 10 not named Jake Peavy. Over the last two months, all I've been hearing is how Dustin Pedroia is a "legitimate MVP candidate" and now he has been crowned as the Junior Circuit's Most Valuable Player.

Firstly, saying something is "legitimate" does not make it so. That would be like me saying that David Wright was the legitimate Silver Slugger winner at 3B. Secondly, Dustin Pedroia as the AL MVP is egregious in that he wasn't even the most valuable player in his division. Hell, he wasn't even the most valuable on his team. Kevin Youkilis OPS'd .949 (143+) to Pedroia's .869 (122+). He was more than twenty percent better than the little guy at the plate this year before taking into account the fact that Youkilis jumped from 1st to 3rd and even the OF for the Sox, while providing Gold Glove calibur defense. To all of which some say that Pedroia was more valuable because he provided of all this offense at a key defensive position (which sounds vaguely familiar to the Jimmy Rollins claims from '07).

If one were to look at the WARP3, which takes defensive positioning and league into account, Pedroia holds the slight advantage, worth approximately a single win more than Youk. This is in spite of the fact that Youk's defensive numbers fell dramatically when he made about half his errors in the month that he was forced to play out of position at 3rd. Pedroia's offensive value is also somewhat inflated when the number is normalized, since his .870 OPS is being compared to such offensive stalwarts as Brian Roberts (.830), Javier Lopez (.765), and Alexei Ramirez (.790). The only second baseman who hit remotely close to him is Ian Kinsler who outperformed Pedroia until he was lost for the year. Youk's offensive value is degraded as his normalization occurs against comparisons to notorious sluggers Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Jason Giambi, and Carlos Pena--all of whom OPS'd over .860.

Also, Youk managed only 3 less RC (123-120) than Pedroia in over 100 less PAs. The dude was just a beast this year. Sure, having a 5' 7" guy win the MVP is a great story (if you're Dan Shaughnessy), but having a guy on his own team win that out-performed him in every way all year, or one of the top two guys in VORP in the AL, A-Rod and Sizemore, win makes a hell of a lot more sense.

I have no beef with Pujols winning in the NL, but in a mini-rant, there is no way in hell Chipper Jones finishes 12th. Carlos Delgado was cast aside and "washed up" according to everyone and their mother by July. Aramis Ramirez had a good year, but "only" mangaed a 128 OPS+ to Chipper's 174. David Wright I feel like I addressed above in re: it's a joke he beat Larry for anything. And how the hell does Hanley finish 11th? The guy was second in ALL OF BASEBALL in VORP. He OPS'd .940 FROM THE SS POSITION. How the hell does J-Roll win it hitting a paltry .860 ish and Hanley can't even get any damn consideration at all?

It's time to revisit letting completely inept people vote for something they may or may not know about.