My Bad Milton

You know, now that I set my formula for 500 plate appearances. I checked... and Milton Bradley had 510 plate appearances, which means he does qualify for the MVP. But A-Rod still has it...

The AL MVP Qualifiers
TIER A
1. Alex Rodriguez - 59 points (8th)
TIER B
2. Milton Bradley - 49 points (17th)
3. Kevin Youkilis - 46 points (3rd...hey there is one right!!!)
TIER C
4. Carlos Quentin - 38 points (5th)
5. Joe Mauer - 36 points (4th)
6. Josh Hamilton - 34 points (7th)
7. Justin Morneau - 32.5 points (2nd...yeah, 2nd on his team)
8. Grady Sizemore - 31.5 points (10th)
9. Nick Markakis - 31 points (NO VOTES!)
TIER D
10. Dustin Pedroia - 25 points (1st...not even 1st in Boston)
RESULT
Pedroia won. Making this a total wash of an MVP. Pedroia barely made the list and although this is an acceptable MVP choice, it is a pretty bad grade and near failure. Writers get a D.

I think of all those, the most interesting find was that Bradley was more valuable than Hamilton. However, Hamilton finished ten spots ahead of Bradley in voting. Both have had troubled pasts. Hamilton was on enough crank to increase productivity in a Chinese toy factory by 600 percent. Bradley has had his share of problems, but most of them come from anger.

Bradley grew up a poor black kid who chose to dedicate his life to baseball which is uncommon in the black community. Hamilton grew up a wealthy white kid who was groomed to be the next phenom baseball player. However, drug and alcohol problems derailed his climb to the Majors. Bradley's anger issues halted him from having lucrative contract offers and made him unwanted by many teams.

So has Milton Bradley overcome more or Josh Hamilton? Hell the man overcame my 500 plate appearance requirement, so I say Milton by a landslide.

The AL top list is intriguing. It has a pair of American Latinos, three men cast off by their first team as lost causes, an angry black man, a few ex football players, an ex hockey player, a guy not offered a division one scholarship, a catcher, a crackhead, a DH, a caveman, a hard-nosed fidget, and a top prospect now voted off a 40 man roster. Thus proving that the game of baseball is the exemplary, definitive metaphor to the American dream. Where height, race, body fat percentage, attitude, and addictions are nothing but side notes and prefaces to living like a rock star and getting paid like a oil tycoon.

Why A-Rod is the Obvious AL MVP

Alex Rodriguez was the blatant and obvious MVP choice this year. And for once, his name hurt him. Had he been an average Joe who happened to dominate offensively like he did in 2008, the MVP would have been nearly unanimous. If he sported a shaved head, a caveman goatee, a knack for fighting with Hall of Fame outfielders, and always sprinting out an infield fly rule...you would be in awe of the way he plays the game. Or maybe if he was four foot seven, weighed 115 pounds, you would vote for him.

Sure, his team did not make the playoffs. However, his team was in the best division in baseball, and by a long shot. Had he played in the NL West, he could have single handily pushed the Rockies back into the postseason. Sure, A-Rod has won three MVP's already, he's filthy rich, and he's on the most hated team in baseball. However, that does not mean he was not the MVP. Let me throw some stats out and A-Rod's statistical rank compared to Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, two Bahston guys who finished ahead of A-Rod in the MVP voting. I will not list flawed statistics, but stats with proven formulas to measure a true MVP.
X = that player did not finish in the top ten

OPS +
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 4th (7 pts)

Runs Created
Rodriguez - 7th (4 pts)
Pedroia - 4th (7 pts)
Youkilis - 6th (5 pts)

Adjusted Batting Runs
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 4th (7 pts)

Batting Wins
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 4th (7 pts)

Offensive Winning Percentage
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 3rd (8 pts)

Value Over Replacement Player
Rodriguez - 1st (10 pts)
Pedroia - 3rd (8 pts)
Youkilis - 9th (2 pts)

Fielding Percentage at Position
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - 2nd (9 pts)
Youkilis - 7th (4 pts)

Zone Rating
Rodriguez - 5th (6 pts)
Pedroia - 2nd (9 pts)
Youkilis - 3rd (8 pts)


NOTE: Milton Bradley dominated nearly every stat above and finished first almost unanimously. However, due to him missing nearly 40 games, I dismissed his MVP credentials. But that is another argument in and of itself. Also, I would not consider pitchers for the MVP award as 30 starts or 70 innings does not warrant you being the most valuable player...sorry.

The Machiavellian Value of Player Formula
Adjusted OPS + Runs Created + Adjusted Batting Runs + Batting Wins + Offensive Win % + VORP + [(Fielding Percentage at Position + Zone Rating) / 2]

First place would be ten points, second nine points, and so on. Tenth place is one point and below tenth there is zero.

Rodriguez - 59
Pedroia - 25
Youkilis - 46

So, while A-Rod is the clear MVP, Youk should have at least won it over his own teammate who was nearly half as valuable.

A vote for Joe Mauer

Boston second baseman Dustin Pedroia won this year's American League MVP award Tuesday, on the strength of a .326 average, winning a Gold Glove, playing for the Red Sox and being the type of scrappy player that sportswriters love. It was a decent choice, and arguments can certainly be made for Pedroia, but I think the better choice is Minnesota Twins' catcher Joe Mauer.


To make my case, I will break down batting and fielding statistics for both players, and how they compare to each other and the rest of the league.

Both players were on most American League offensive leaderboards, and they actually had somewhat similar seasons.

Mauer won the batting title with a .328 average while Pedroia was right behind at .326.

Pedroia tied for the league lead in hits with Ichiro Suzuki, with 213, but Pedroia also had more than 100 at bats more than Mauer, who had 176 hits. This can also account for Pedroia having the edge in total bases.

Pedroia scored more runs, but he also batted higher in the order and had much better hitters around him to drive him in. Mauer batted third, ahead of Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel - together, those three were the only above average hitters in the Twins lineup - Denard Span could qualify as "above average" as well, but he was only in Minnesota for half the year.

A common knock on Mauer is his lack of RBI production for a middle-of-the-order hitter, with 85 in 2008. But Mauer also had Carlos Gomez (he of the .296 OBP) batting leadoff for the first half of the year and Alexi Casilla batting second (.333 OBP). It is kind of hard to drive in runs when nobody is on base in front of you - I don't have the data in front of me, but I would bet good money that Mauer led the league in meaningless 2-out hits.

I should add that I think RBIs are a poor statistic for measuring hitters, but they still mean a lot to most sportswriters and voters.

Pedroia has an obvious edge in power, especially for a middle infielder, with 17 home runs. Mauer hit nine, and his career high is only 13, in 2006.

What Mauer lacks in power, he makes up for in on-base percentage. He had a .413 OBP, second only to Milton Bradley's ridiculous .436 on the league leaderboard. Mauer ranked seventh in the league in walks, with 84, while Pedroia had only 50. Mauer's walks to strikeouts ratio (1.68) also beats Pedroia (.96).

Something else to keep in mind as far as power numbers go, is that even with the Mauer's lack of home runs, his OPS (.864) was almost identical to Pedroia's (.869). OPS being that close is basically Mauer's walks cancelling out Pedroia's home runs. On the surface a home run is obviously more valuable than a walk, but think about this: would you rather have a player who walks 6.4 percent more of the time, thereby being a potential run for his team that many more times (Mauer), or a guy who hits eight more home runs (Pedroia).

Looking into OPS+, Mauer again has the advantage at 137, against Pedroia's mark of 122.

If you dig deeper into more advanced statistics, Mauer still has the advantage. Mauer had a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .350, while Pedroia's was .336. It could be argued that Mauer was just luckier, but while BABIP can show if a player was extremely lucky or unlucky, it is not completely based on luck - if a player makes better, and harder, contact, more hits will fall in because it gives the fielders less time to react. Therefore, BABIP needs to be looked at with line drive percentage; Mauer's was 22.6 percent while Pedroia's was 21.2 percent. This is not a huge difference, but Mauer is still ahead, plus, Pedroia was plenty lucky himself in BABIP.

Looking into Win Probability Added (WPA), which measures, according to www.aarongleeman.com, "how much impact specific plays had on the outcome of each game and assigns that value to the individual players responsible," Mauer (4.88) again has an advantage over Pedroia (3.29).

Moving on to fielding, Pedroia was clearly one of the best defensive second baseman in the AL - he ranked second with a .992 fielding percentage (topped only by Mark Ellis, with .993), second in zone rating with .854 (beaten by Ellis again, with .868) and second in errors with six (second to, who else, Ellis, who had four).

Mauer was similarly stellar at catcher. He led all AL catchers with a .997 fielding percentage and committed only three errors. His caught-stealing percentage of .261 was topped only by Jose Molina, Dioner Navarro and Ivan Rodriguez.

Both players are top defensive players in the league at their respective positions and won Gold Gloves (not that that award matters, however...), but defense is not the only consideration. If that was the only criteria, we would be analyzing AL MVP Mark Ellis right now.

Both are also top offensive players at their positions; they are very similar hitters for the most part, with Mauer having the edge in OBP and Pedroia having the edge in power.

But for me, the decision comes down to how valuable they are at that position. Quick, name off above average AL second basemen: Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Placido Polanco and Alexei Ramirez, to name a few. Now name off above average AL catchers: Mauer, Navarro, AJ Pierzynski, a declining Rodriguez and not much else.

Therefore, while Pedroia is a solid selection, Mauer would get my vote for being such an excellent hitter (as good, if not better, than Pedroia) while playing a much less common and more difficult position, and playing it well.

The First Annual "The MVP is Irrelevant Because the People Voting are Idiots" Rant

I've ceased trying to understand why we let some people vote on the MVP. Typically, one player is so damn dominant that the choice is clear cut and doesn't afford Woody Paige the opportunity to vote for a guy because he's a gritty grinder who plays the game right. However, whenever there is not an obvious, Barry Bonds circa 2001-2004 player, the writers tend to...well...you get Jimmy Rollins last year (Rollins was actually quite deserving, as he made the most outs of anyone in the league and had an OPS at least 70 points lower than anyone in the Top 10 not named Jake Peavy. Over the last two months, all I've been hearing is how Dustin Pedroia is a "legitimate MVP candidate" and now he has been crowned as the Junior Circuit's Most Valuable Player.

Firstly, saying something is "legitimate" does not make it so. That would be like me saying that David Wright was the legitimate Silver Slugger winner at 3B. Secondly, Dustin Pedroia as the AL MVP is egregious in that he wasn't even the most valuable player in his division. Hell, he wasn't even the most valuable on his team. Kevin Youkilis OPS'd .949 (143+) to Pedroia's .869 (122+). He was more than twenty percent better than the little guy at the plate this year before taking into account the fact that Youkilis jumped from 1st to 3rd and even the OF for the Sox, while providing Gold Glove calibur defense. To all of which some say that Pedroia was more valuable because he provided of all this offense at a key defensive position (which sounds vaguely familiar to the Jimmy Rollins claims from '07).

If one were to look at the WARP3, which takes defensive positioning and league into account, Pedroia holds the slight advantage, worth approximately a single win more than Youk. This is in spite of the fact that Youk's defensive numbers fell dramatically when he made about half his errors in the month that he was forced to play out of position at 3rd. Pedroia's offensive value is also somewhat inflated when the number is normalized, since his .870 OPS is being compared to such offensive stalwarts as Brian Roberts (.830), Javier Lopez (.765), and Alexei Ramirez (.790). The only second baseman who hit remotely close to him is Ian Kinsler who outperformed Pedroia until he was lost for the year. Youk's offensive value is degraded as his normalization occurs against comparisons to notorious sluggers Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Jason Giambi, and Carlos Pena--all of whom OPS'd over .860.

Also, Youk managed only 3 less RC (123-120) than Pedroia in over 100 less PAs. The dude was just a beast this year. Sure, having a 5' 7" guy win the MVP is a great story (if you're Dan Shaughnessy), but having a guy on his own team win that out-performed him in every way all year, or one of the top two guys in VORP in the AL, A-Rod and Sizemore, win makes a hell of a lot more sense.

I have no beef with Pujols winning in the NL, but in a mini-rant, there is no way in hell Chipper Jones finishes 12th. Carlos Delgado was cast aside and "washed up" according to everyone and their mother by July. Aramis Ramirez had a good year, but "only" mangaed a 128 OPS+ to Chipper's 174. David Wright I feel like I addressed above in re: it's a joke he beat Larry for anything. And how the hell does Hanley finish 11th? The guy was second in ALL OF BASEBALL in VORP. He OPS'd .940 FROM THE SS POSITION. How the hell does J-Roll win it hitting a paltry .860 ish and Hanley can't even get any damn consideration at all?

It's time to revisit letting completely inept people vote for something they may or may not know about.