Why A-Rod is the Obvious AL MVP

Alex Rodriguez was the blatant and obvious MVP choice this year. And for once, his name hurt him. Had he been an average Joe who happened to dominate offensively like he did in 2008, the MVP would have been nearly unanimous. If he sported a shaved head, a caveman goatee, a knack for fighting with Hall of Fame outfielders, and always sprinting out an infield fly rule...you would be in awe of the way he plays the game. Or maybe if he was four foot seven, weighed 115 pounds, you would vote for him.

Sure, his team did not make the playoffs. However, his team was in the best division in baseball, and by a long shot. Had he played in the NL West, he could have single handily pushed the Rockies back into the postseason. Sure, A-Rod has won three MVP's already, he's filthy rich, and he's on the most hated team in baseball. However, that does not mean he was not the MVP. Let me throw some stats out and A-Rod's statistical rank compared to Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, two Bahston guys who finished ahead of A-Rod in the MVP voting. I will not list flawed statistics, but stats with proven formulas to measure a true MVP.
X = that player did not finish in the top ten

OPS +
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 4th (7 pts)

Runs Created
Rodriguez - 7th (4 pts)
Pedroia - 4th (7 pts)
Youkilis - 6th (5 pts)

Adjusted Batting Runs
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 4th (7 pts)

Batting Wins
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 4th (7 pts)

Offensive Winning Percentage
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - X (0 pts)
Youkilis - 3rd (8 pts)

Value Over Replacement Player
Rodriguez - 1st (10 pts)
Pedroia - 3rd (8 pts)
Youkilis - 9th (2 pts)

Fielding Percentage at Position
Rodriguez - 2nd (9 pts)
Pedroia - 2nd (9 pts)
Youkilis - 7th (4 pts)

Zone Rating
Rodriguez - 5th (6 pts)
Pedroia - 2nd (9 pts)
Youkilis - 3rd (8 pts)


NOTE: Milton Bradley dominated nearly every stat above and finished first almost unanimously. However, due to him missing nearly 40 games, I dismissed his MVP credentials. But that is another argument in and of itself. Also, I would not consider pitchers for the MVP award as 30 starts or 70 innings does not warrant you being the most valuable player...sorry.

The Machiavellian Value of Player Formula
Adjusted OPS + Runs Created + Adjusted Batting Runs + Batting Wins + Offensive Win % + VORP + [(Fielding Percentage at Position + Zone Rating) / 2]

First place would be ten points, second nine points, and so on. Tenth place is one point and below tenth there is zero.

Rodriguez - 59
Pedroia - 25
Youkilis - 46

So, while A-Rod is the clear MVP, Youk should have at least won it over his own teammate who was nearly half as valuable.

The First Annual "The MVP is Irrelevant Because the People Voting are Idiots" Rant

I've ceased trying to understand why we let some people vote on the MVP. Typically, one player is so damn dominant that the choice is clear cut and doesn't afford Woody Paige the opportunity to vote for a guy because he's a gritty grinder who plays the game right. However, whenever there is not an obvious, Barry Bonds circa 2001-2004 player, the writers tend to...well...you get Jimmy Rollins last year (Rollins was actually quite deserving, as he made the most outs of anyone in the league and had an OPS at least 70 points lower than anyone in the Top 10 not named Jake Peavy. Over the last two months, all I've been hearing is how Dustin Pedroia is a "legitimate MVP candidate" and now he has been crowned as the Junior Circuit's Most Valuable Player.

Firstly, saying something is "legitimate" does not make it so. That would be like me saying that David Wright was the legitimate Silver Slugger winner at 3B. Secondly, Dustin Pedroia as the AL MVP is egregious in that he wasn't even the most valuable player in his division. Hell, he wasn't even the most valuable on his team. Kevin Youkilis OPS'd .949 (143+) to Pedroia's .869 (122+). He was more than twenty percent better than the little guy at the plate this year before taking into account the fact that Youkilis jumped from 1st to 3rd and even the OF for the Sox, while providing Gold Glove calibur defense. To all of which some say that Pedroia was more valuable because he provided of all this offense at a key defensive position (which sounds vaguely familiar to the Jimmy Rollins claims from '07).

If one were to look at the WARP3, which takes defensive positioning and league into account, Pedroia holds the slight advantage, worth approximately a single win more than Youk. This is in spite of the fact that Youk's defensive numbers fell dramatically when he made about half his errors in the month that he was forced to play out of position at 3rd. Pedroia's offensive value is also somewhat inflated when the number is normalized, since his .870 OPS is being compared to such offensive stalwarts as Brian Roberts (.830), Javier Lopez (.765), and Alexei Ramirez (.790). The only second baseman who hit remotely close to him is Ian Kinsler who outperformed Pedroia until he was lost for the year. Youk's offensive value is degraded as his normalization occurs against comparisons to notorious sluggers Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Jason Giambi, and Carlos Pena--all of whom OPS'd over .860.

Also, Youk managed only 3 less RC (123-120) than Pedroia in over 100 less PAs. The dude was just a beast this year. Sure, having a 5' 7" guy win the MVP is a great story (if you're Dan Shaughnessy), but having a guy on his own team win that out-performed him in every way all year, or one of the top two guys in VORP in the AL, A-Rod and Sizemore, win makes a hell of a lot more sense.

I have no beef with Pujols winning in the NL, but in a mini-rant, there is no way in hell Chipper Jones finishes 12th. Carlos Delgado was cast aside and "washed up" according to everyone and their mother by July. Aramis Ramirez had a good year, but "only" mangaed a 128 OPS+ to Chipper's 174. David Wright I feel like I addressed above in re: it's a joke he beat Larry for anything. And how the hell does Hanley finish 11th? The guy was second in ALL OF BASEBALL in VORP. He OPS'd .940 FROM THE SS POSITION. How the hell does J-Roll win it hitting a paltry .860 ish and Hanley can't even get any damn consideration at all?

It's time to revisit letting completely inept people vote for something they may or may not know about.