Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Would the Real Hall of Famer Please Stand Up?


Sorry Bert, like your career, you can't do this fuckin thing over again.

MINNESOTA -- The fact the pitcher Bert Blyleven does not have a plaque in Cooperstown is as grandiose of a joke as Rosie O'Donnell getting her own variety show on NBC. Bert is a Hall of Famer through and through. And with the Vet Committee enshrining the likes of Gotham City Police Commissioner Joe Gordon, not enshrining Bert becomes more and more ludicrous by the year.

Bert ranks fifth all-time in strikeouts (3,701) behind only Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Steve Carlton. His 60 career complete game shutouts ranks 9th all time. Playing for a slew of poor teams left Bert 13 wins shy of 300. Yet he piled up 242 complete games. He also showed off a rubber arm. At age 22 he compiled 25 complete games, and 13 years later he led the league with 24 complete games at the age of 35.

Bert pitched 21 games in the Minor Leagues. He would be called up less than two months removed from his 19th birthday; he would never appear in a Minor League uniform again. At age 19, the Rookie of the Year started 25 games and came on in relief for two. In nearly 5,000 innings of work he would go on to relieve just five more times after age 19. That's 685 starts, and 7 relief appearances over 22 seasons.

In Bert's first four full seasons in the Majors he maintained an ERA under three, averaging 18 wins, and 240 strikeouts. He notoriously pitched on horrible teams and was constantly requested to be traded. That misfortune resulted in him being traded five different times in his career; generally from shit team to shit team. In 1973 he lossed 17 games despite posting a 158 ERA+ (almost a run and a half better ERA than the league average). Bert had a rubber arm. At the age of 22 he hurled 325 innings, and at age 38 compiled 240. Despite pitching deep into games his career ERA+ was a very respectable 118.

Bert's most comparable pitcher is Hall of Famer Don Sutton. Sutton's career ERA+ was 108 (10 less than Blyleven), with 200 less strikeouts, and 64 fewer complete games. Bert's ERA+ is also better than Cooperstown's Phil Niekro, the 80's version of Jamie Moyer, who joined the 300 win club at the ripe age of 84. Blyleven retired at 41. He was considered washed up with only 8 wins in 1992. However, had he repeated his washed campaign just two more times he would have had 300.


Niekro and Sutton, age 86, 90 respectively.

Blyleven managed to win two World Series despite only being on a playoff team three times in his 22 year career. He was 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA in six postseason starts. His most memorable game was a complete game, nine strikeout performance in 1979 against Cincinnati; a game in which he chalked got a hit (making him a .333 career LCS hitter). He was undefeated in World Series games, posting a 2.35 ERA. With the Rangers in 1977, two weeks removed from a groin injury, Bert mounted a no-hitter against the Angels.

ESPN tool Chris Berman referred to him as Bert "Be Home By Eleven" Blyleven. Well eleven years have past since Bert's initial Hall eligibility and Bert's still not home. In that span Niekro, Sutton, and three men known better as relief pitchers in Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, and Goose Gossage were all enshrined. Eck's ERA+ is 116, two less than Bert's. Sutter pitched 1,042 innings in his entire Major League career. Blyleven eclipsed that by age 22. That's right, Bert had more innings under his belt a year removed from the legal drinking age than Sutter's entire Hall of Fame career combined.

Goose was a mediocre reliever turned failed starter, turned great closer, turned poor reliever. Goose's only season of starting brought about a 9-17 record with an ERA+ of 91. Bert pitched into his 40's despite averaging 245 innings a year for 22 seasons. Gossage's last year of 60 or more innings was at the age of 34 (also the last year he would finish top 10 in saves), yet pitched until age 42. That's eight years of mediocrity and averaging less than 5 saves per year. Without those years, he would not have surpassed 300 saves. The great Tom Hanks retired with a save more than Gossage and an ERA+ of 156 (30 points better than Goose). Oops, I mean Tom Henke. Tough to remember relief pitchers who don't have a badass mustache and pitch for the Yankees.

Dennis Eckersley was no longer cutting it as a starting pitcher. He was traded to Oakland in 1987 where prophet Tony LaRussa intended to use him in relief. When Oakland's closer went down, Eck was promoted to the closer's role. Eck would thrive in the role, managing to pitch into his 40's as a dominant closer. In 1989, Blyleven (age 38) would win 17 games with a 2.73 ERA. Eckersley, in 174 fewer innings, posted a 4.16 ERA at age 38.


Gibson: "Yaaaaaaay! I just hit a walkoff World Series home run against a washed up starter turned relief pitcher."

What's the difference between Niekro / Sutton and Blyleven? The trivial 300 win plateau. What's the difference between Goose/ Sutter / Eckersley and Blyleven? Bert was good enough to start for 22 seasons.

What if Blyleven was a career closer?
Gossage (age 24) *only year as a starter*...
9-17, 91 ERA+, 135 K

Blyleven (age 24) *one of 22 years of starting*...
15-10, 129 ERA+, 233 K

Or simply retired at age 22...
Bruce Sutter (entire Hall of Fame career)
1,042.3 IP, 68 W, 861 K, 309 BB, 2.83 ERA

Bert Blyleven (first four seasons in MLB, age 19-22)
1,054.6 IP, 63 W, 845 K, 242 BB, 3.06 ERA


Ozzie: "Dude, we're fuckin' G's. You were a reliever for 12 years and I had a career OPS+ of 87. Bahahahaha."
Bench: "Yeah, you guys can't my hold my jock. I can't believe I'm standing here with the white Roberto Hernandez and the black Cesar Izturis."


What if Bert was demoted to the bullpen in his 13th season and finished his career as a closer?
Statistics of the first 12 seasons of starting for Eck / Bert (Eck was demoted in year 13).
Eckersley (career ERA+ 116)
151 W, 1,627 K, 3.86 ERA

Blyleven (career ERA+ 118)
167 W, 2,357 K, 3.27 ERA

If Blyleven was clearly more dominant and effective than Eck as a starter, wouldn't logic lead you to believe he would at least be Eck's equal as a closer?

Bert just wasn't terrible enough to get demoted to the bullpen. Too bad for him, as it may cost him Cooperstown.

Why the 300 win benchmark is trivial...


Sutton: "Sure Blyleven is better than me, but my haircut is the shit."

Seasons with an ERA+ greater than 100.
Niekro - 18 (115 career ERA+)
Sutton - 18 (108 career ERA+)
Blyleven - 19 (118 career ERA+)

Innings Pitched Per 162 Games
Niekro - 232.3
Sutton - 234.7
Blyleven - 245.3

Seasons Pitching With A Winning Team
Niekro - 11
Sutton - 16
Blyleven - 10

Complete Game Shutouts
Niekro - 45
Sutton - 58
Blyleven - 60

Wins In Their 40's
Niekro - 121
Sutton - 44
Blyleven - 8

Career Innings Pitched Before Age 40
Niekro - 3,436
Sutton - 4,570
Blyleven - 4,837

What about the postseason...
We recently saw the worst Vet Committee selection, Joe Gordon, since Bill Mazeroski. His main reason for being elected was his five World Series rings. So do rings really weigh that heavily into consideration? If so...

Postseason Stats
Gossage - 5-2, 8 S, 2.87 ERA in 19 games (1 WS ring)
Sutter - 2-0, 3 S, 3.00 ERA in 6 games (1 WS ring)
Eckersley - 5-6, 15 S, 3.00 ERA in 28 games (1 WS ring) *8.44 ERA as a starter*
Niekro - 0-2, 3.86 ERA in 2 starts (0 WS rings)
Sutton - 4-5, 3.68 ERA in 14 starts (0 WS rings)
Blyleven - 4-1, 2.47 ERA in 6 starts (2 WS rings)


Sutton: "Sure Blyleven equaled my postseason win total in eight fewer starts and won two rings to my zero. Sure I played on 16 winning teams and never won a World Series. Sure, I lost two games in the 78 World Series, but my haircut is the shit."

Sorry Bert, your ERA was just too low for 300 wins, your teams were just too atrocious to get you 13 more wins over 22 seasons of work, and you shouldn't have averaged nearly 250 innings a year for the 21 seasons preceding your 40th birthday, maybe you could pitched a few years of average ball and got those 13 wins.

Maybe if you did not aspire to pitch 242 complete games your arm could have withstood one or two more years into your 40's. Sorry Bert, you're just too damn good for the Hall of Fame. In your next life, either call it quits after 6 innings of work, become a closer, or sign with a team that wins games. But sorry, we're live, can't start this fuckin' thing over again.

One last thing. What measures a pitcher's dominance? Would you say strikeouts? If so, Bert ranks 5th all-time. Of the 16 pitchers who have had 3,000 or more strikeouts, Bert is the only eligible player not in the Hall of Fame. Or, you may say complete game shutouts measure dominance. Excluding the dead ball ERA, here is the top 10 shutout list.
1. Warren Spahn - 63*
2. Nolan Ryan - 61*
2. Tom Seaver - 61*
4. Bert Blyleven - 60
5. Don Sutton - 58*
6. Bob Gibson - 56*
7. Steve Carlton - 55*
8. Jim Palmer - 53*
8. Gaylord Perry - 53*
10. Juan Marichal - 52*

* = member of the Baseball Hall of Fame


Bert: "I just fucked this thing up..."

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