Immediate Reaction: Vazquez to Braves

ATLANTA--Yesterday, various sources confirmed that Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan were on their way to Atlanta, as Brave's GM completed the long rumored acquisition from his home in the Wren's Nest. At first glance, this move helps solidify a shaky rotation and marks an item off the list of parts that needed to be picked up this offseason. Chicago's side of the deal is all but confirmed, pending physicals and a press conference. There are many conflicting reports as to who Atlanta gave up to complete the trade, as ESPN.com reports the deal as SS Brent Lillibridge, LHP Jo-Jo Reyes, and a minor leaguer. Foxsports.com, Sportline, and MLBTR (via the AJC's Dave O'Brian) all indicate a four-player swap, in which Atlanta would hand over Lillibridge, C Tyler Flowers, 3B Jon Gilmore, and Rookie-League pitcher Santos Rodriguez.

I find it odd that the would include Flowers in a package for Vazquez, as it seemed that his inclusion is what caused the Peavy deal to fall through. Flowers, one of the hottest hitting catching prospects this year, posted 17 homers and a .921 OPS in Class A Myrtle Beach this year and followed that up by mashing 12 homers in 20 games with the Mesa Solar Sox. He's shown the ability to play 1B, long a position of continuity that has eluded the Braves, and it would make sense to keep him in the system as insurance that 18 year old phenom Freddie Freeman doesn't pan out.

The first scenario, though seemingly much more unlikely as more reports come out, is much more favorable to Atlanta, though Flowers is still likely to be a part of the deal. Reyes, the Braves' best major league ready prospect at the beginning of 2008, struggled with his control and homers throughout the season, though he did show flashes of brilliance. Still, his loss could be afforded by a team relatively thick with low-expectation, major-league ready pitching in Charlie Morton, James Parr, Chuck James, and, if healthy, Anthony Lerew, not to mention the dominant Tommy Hanson.

The second scenario is a little tougher to swallow, as the Braves not only give up Flowers but also Jon Gilmore, the 19 year-old 3B prospect out of Iowa. Gilmore projects to have great raw power and plate discipline once he develops while already being a consistent bat, hitting .291 over two seasons including .337 in Danville before getting a cup of coffee with low-A Rome. Losing a low-A, projectable player is generally an acceptable cost; however, the Braves now have to find another player in the draft to replace Gilmore and his gifted athleticism as the heir-apparant to an old and frequently battered Chipper Jones. Gilmore figured to break in around 2011--about the time Chipper hit 40, and the two prospects above him in the pecking order--Van Pope and Eric Campbell--each have their flaws. Pope possesses an outstanding glove, but struggles at the plate, hitting .237 in Mississippi this year. Campbell has exceptional talent and athleticism, but has struggled off the field, including a suspension handed down by the organization, and is being exposed to the Rule V draft (though unlikely he'd be taken given the off field troubles).

As for Javy Vazquez being a Brave--I'm elated. He's a guy who showed great stuff and the ability to eat innings while toiling for terrible Montreal teams. While he's not the ace, or likely even the number two, that Wren was looking for, he's a solid addition. He continues to eat innings (would top 200+ nine straight years if not for coming two short in 2004) as well as still having great stuff, as he still averages over 8 K's per 9 and usually only walks 2-3 per 9. He's generally hard to hit (Top 10 in H/9 3 times since 2001) as well as posting good WHIP numbers from year to year. Furthermore, a return to the senior circuit where he could face a pitcher three times a game as well as not facing the stacked offenses of the AL could do him significant good.

The other piece the Braves receive, Boone Logan, is a guy I hope I don't have to write about much when the season begins. I can see myself getting pissed off everytime he enters the game. Think 2008 Royce Ring. But with a weaker beard, a weaker name, and weaker stuff. I see him being inducted into the HOS by July.

This trade should do the Braves some short-term good over the next two years, as Vazquez is likely to deliver 200+ innings of sub-4.00 ball, while posting close to 200 K's and around 60 BB's, all while making a manageable $11.7 million a year. The Braves gave up three guys who weren't going to see the bigs by 2010 or 2011, and a utility infielder who was blocked and fell off the cliff last year splitting time between AAA and Atlanta. The long-term assessment depends on how Flowers and Gilmore develop. If these two become even .270/20 guys, this deal may be much harder to swallow three or four years from now if the acquisition fails to help lead Atlanta back to the playoffs.