Would the Real Hall of Famer Please Stand Up?

Sorry Bert, like your career, you can't do this fuckin thing over again.

MINNESOTA -- The fact the pitcher Bert Blyleven does not have a plaque in Cooperstown is as grandiose of a joke as Rosie O'Donnell getting her own variety show on NBC. Bert is a Hall of Famer through and through. And with the Vet Committee enshrining the likes of Gotham City Police Commissioner Joe Gordon, not enshrining Bert becomes more and more ludicrous by the year.

Bert ranks fifth all-time in strikeouts (3,701) behind only Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Steve Carlton. His 60 career complete game shutouts ranks 9th all time. Playing for a slew of poor teams left Bert 13 wins shy of 300. Yet he piled up 242 complete games. He also showed off a rubber arm. At age 22 he compiled 25 complete games, and 13 years later he led the league with 24 complete games at the age of 35.

Bert pitched 21 games in the Minor Leagues. He would be called up less than two months removed from his 19th birthday; he would never appear in a Minor League uniform again. At age 19, the Rookie of the Year started 25 games and came on in relief for two. In nearly 5,000 innings of work he would go on to relieve just five more times after age 19. That's 685 starts, and 7 relief appearances over 22 seasons.

In Bert's first four full seasons in the Majors he maintained an ERA under three, averaging 18 wins, and 240 strikeouts. He notoriously pitched on horrible teams and was constantly requested to be traded. That misfortune resulted in him being traded five different times in his career; generally from shit team to shit team. In 1973 he lossed 17 games despite posting a 158 ERA+ (almost a run and a half better ERA than the league average). Bert had a rubber arm. At the age of 22 he hurled 325 innings, and at age 38 compiled 240. Despite pitching deep into games his career ERA+ was a very respectable 118.

Bert's most comparable pitcher is Hall of Famer Don Sutton. Sutton's career ERA+ was 108 (10 less than Blyleven), with 200 less strikeouts, and 64 fewer complete games. Bert's ERA+ is also better than Cooperstown's Phil Niekro, the 80's version of Jamie Moyer, who joined the 300 win club at the ripe age of 84. Blyleven retired at 41. He was considered washed up with only 8 wins in 1992. However, had he repeated his washed campaign just two more times he would have had 300.


Niekro and Sutton, age 86, 90 respectively.

Blyleven managed to win two World Series despite only being on a playoff team three times in his 22 year career. He was 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA in six postseason starts. His most memorable game was a complete game, nine strikeout performance in 1979 against Cincinnati; a game in which he chalked got a hit (making him a .333 career LCS hitter). He was undefeated in World Series games, posting a 2.35 ERA. With the Rangers in 1977, two weeks removed from a groin injury, Bert mounted a no-hitter against the Angels.

ESPN tool Chris Berman referred to him as Bert "Be Home By Eleven" Blyleven. Well eleven years have past since Bert's initial Hall eligibility and Bert's still not home. In that span Niekro, Sutton, and three men known better as relief pitchers in Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, and Goose Gossage were all enshrined. Eck's ERA+ is 116, two less than Bert's. Sutter pitched 1,042 innings in his entire Major League career. Blyleven eclipsed that by age 22. That's right, Bert had more innings under his belt a year removed from the legal drinking age than Sutter's entire Hall of Fame career combined.

Goose was a mediocre reliever turned failed starter, turned great closer, turned poor reliever. Goose's only season of starting brought about a 9-17 record with an ERA+ of 91. Bert pitched into his 40's despite averaging 245 innings a year for 22 seasons. Gossage's last year of 60 or more innings was at the age of 34 (also the last year he would finish top 10 in saves), yet pitched until age 42. That's eight years of mediocrity and averaging less than 5 saves per year. Without those years, he would not have surpassed 300 saves. The great Tom Hanks retired with a save more than Gossage and an ERA+ of 156 (30 points better than Goose). Oops, I mean Tom Henke. Tough to remember relief pitchers who don't have a badass mustache and pitch for the Yankees.

Dennis Eckersley was no longer cutting it as a starting pitcher. He was traded to Oakland in 1987 where prophet Tony LaRussa intended to use him in relief. When Oakland's closer went down, Eck was promoted to the closer's role. Eck would thrive in the role, managing to pitch into his 40's as a dominant closer. In 1989, Blyleven (age 38) would win 17 games with a 2.73 ERA. Eckersley, in 174 fewer innings, posted a 4.16 ERA at age 38.


Gibson: "Yaaaaaaay! I just hit a walkoff World Series home run against a washed up starter turned relief pitcher."

What's the difference between Niekro / Sutton and Blyleven? The trivial 300 win plateau. What's the difference between Goose/ Sutter / Eckersley and Blyleven? Bert was good enough to start for 22 seasons.

What if Blyleven was a career closer?
Gossage (age 24) *only year as a starter*...
9-17, 91 ERA+, 135 K

Blyleven (age 24) *one of 22 years of starting*...
15-10, 129 ERA+, 233 K

Or simply retired at age 22...
Bruce Sutter (entire Hall of Fame career)
1,042.3 IP, 68 W, 861 K, 309 BB, 2.83 ERA

Bert Blyleven (first four seasons in MLB, age 19-22)
1,054.6 IP, 63 W, 845 K, 242 BB, 3.06 ERA


Ozzie: "Dude, we're fuckin' G's. You were a reliever for 12 years and I had a career OPS+ of 87. Bahahahaha."
Bench: "Yeah, you guys can't my hold my jock. I can't believe I'm standing here with the white Roberto Hernandez and the black Cesar Izturis."

What if Bert was demoted to the bullpen in his 13th season and finished his career as a closer?
Statistics of the first 12 seasons of starting for Eck / Bert (Eck was demoted in year 13).
Eckersley (career ERA+ 116)
151 W, 1,627 K, 3.86 ERA

Blyleven (career ERA+ 118)
167 W, 2,357 K, 3.27 ERA

If Blyleven was clearly more dominant and effective than Eck as a starter, wouldn't logic lead you to believe he would at least be Eck's equal as a closer?

Bert just wasn't terrible enough to get demoted to the bullpen. Too bad for him, as it may cost him Cooperstown.

Why the 300 win benchmark is trivial...


Sutton: "Sure Blyleven is better than me, but my haircut is the shit."

Seasons with an ERA+ greater than 100.
Niekro - 18 (115 career ERA+)
Sutton - 18 (108 career ERA+)
Blyleven - 19 (118 career ERA+)

Innings Pitched Per 162 Games
Niekro - 232.3
Sutton - 234.7
Blyleven - 245.3

Seasons Pitching With A Winning Team
Niekro - 11
Sutton - 16
Blyleven - 10

Complete Game Shutouts
Niekro - 45
Sutton - 58
Blyleven - 60

Wins In Their 40's
Niekro - 121
Sutton - 44
Blyleven - 8

Career Innings Pitched Before Age 40
Niekro - 3,436
Sutton - 4,570
Blyleven - 4,837

What about the postseason...
We recently saw the worst Vet Committee selection, Joe Gordon, since Bill Mazeroski. His main reason for being elected was his five World Series rings. So do rings really weigh that heavily into consideration? If so...

Postseason Stats
Gossage - 5-2, 8 S, 2.87 ERA in 19 games (1 WS ring)
Sutter - 2-0, 3 S, 3.00 ERA in 6 games (1 WS ring)
Eckersley - 5-6, 15 S, 3.00 ERA in 28 games (1 WS ring) *8.44 ERA as a starter*
Niekro - 0-2, 3.86 ERA in 2 starts (0 WS rings)
Sutton - 4-5, 3.68 ERA in 14 starts (0 WS rings)
Blyleven - 4-1, 2.47 ERA in 6 starts (2 WS rings)


Sutton: "Sure Blyleven equaled my postseason win total in eight fewer starts and won two rings to my zero. Sure I played on 16 winning teams and never won a World Series. Sure, I lost two games in the 78 World Series, but my haircut is the shit."

Sorry Bert, your ERA was just too low for 300 wins, your teams were just too atrocious to get you 13 more wins over 22 seasons of work, and you shouldn't have averaged nearly 250 innings a year for the 21 seasons preceding your 40th birthday, maybe you could pitched a few years of average ball and got those 13 wins.

Maybe if you did not aspire to pitch 242 complete games your arm could have withstood one or two more years into your 40's. Sorry Bert, you're just too damn good for the Hall of Fame. In your next life, either call it quits after 6 innings of work, become a closer, or sign with a team that wins games. But sorry, we're live, can't start this fuckin' thing over again.

One last thing. What measures a pitcher's dominance? Would you say strikeouts? If so, Bert ranks 5th all-time. Of the 16 pitchers who have had 3,000 or more strikeouts, Bert is the only eligible player not in the Hall of Fame. Or, you may say complete game shutouts measure dominance. Excluding the dead ball ERA, here is the top 10 shutout list.
1. Warren Spahn - 63*
2. Nolan Ryan - 61*
2. Tom Seaver - 61*
4. Bert Blyleven - 60
5. Don Sutton - 58*
6. Bob Gibson - 56*
7. Steve Carlton - 55*
8. Jim Palmer - 53*
8. Gaylord Perry - 53*
10. Juan Marichal - 52*

* = member of the Baseball Hall of Fame


Bert: "I just fucked this thing up..."

The Case for Mark McGwire

NEW YORK--After failing in his first two years of eligibility, Mark McGwire will appear on the Hall of Fame ballot for the third time. After retiring, McGwire seemed to be a lock for a first ballot entry into the Hall. He was the single season record holder for home runs in a season, was eighth all-time in career homers, and amassed a 162 OPS+ across sixteen storied seasons.

All of that changed when the steroid rumors hit full tilt in 2004. Writers began openly questioning the merits of McGwire's candidacy, linking him to performance enhancing drugs and renowned users, including former team-mate and Oakland Bash-Brother Jose Canseco. In spite of McGwire's adamant demands that he never juiced, there is little doubt that he did in fact use PED's during his career--a fact made all the more apparent by his embarrassing testimony in front of the Senate Committee.

Many feel McGwire should never be let in for his alleged use of steroids. However, if one were to look at the circumstances of the time it becomes much harder to say he truly doesn't belong. Baseball's ban of steroids and subsequent testing policies were not ex post facto law. That is: those who used before were not subject to penalties if they were clean afterward. Since baseball didn't implement proper testing until after McGwire's years, it seems to reason that his using is inconsequential. Furthermore, the substance McGwire is most commonly linked to--Andro--was not formally banned by the controlled substance act until 2005, meaning his use was absolutely legal.

To put this in context, suppose that in 2015 baseball and/or the government were to ban creatine and advanced protein supplements. One couldn't possibly deny an entire generation of baseball players entrance to the Hall based on a law put in act years after they left. Yet that is what is happening today. According to Canseco and numerous other players, more than half of the players in the 90's juiced, casting a shadow over the whole generation. While some players certainly used after the ban (I'm looking at you, Damian Moss), the fact that so many players used then-legal supplements during this so-called steroids era should level the playing field in the eyes of voters (especially when numbers suggest that more pitchers juiced than position players).

On the basis of his counting and rate stats alone McGwire deserves to grace Cooperstown. 583 homers, an unreal .392 OBP, a career .982 OPS, a 162 OPS+, and (for what it's worth, if 2008 shows you anything) numerous All-Star appearances, Silver Sluggers, and massive MVP consideration year after year speak on McGwire's behalf. Hopefully the writers will man up and realize that not having one of the most dominant players in the 90's in the Hall of Fame is a travesty to baseball and to his generation.

Remembering the Preacher

"I've got three pitches, my change, my change off my change, and my change off my change off my change."
-Preacher Roe

Former pitcher Elwin Charles "Preacher" Roe passed away earlier this month. He lived 92 years and some change. Roe spent seven of his twelve Major League seasons with the Brooklyn Dodgers, and was a member of the famous Dodger team immortalized in Roger Kahn's classic novel The Boys of Summer. A team which included Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, Duke Snider and Pee Wee Reese. Kahn wrote "When I went forth to cover the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1952, the most cerebral Brooklyn pitcher was a tall, skinny hillbilly named Elwin Charles 'Preacher' Roe."

The left hander retired with a .602 winning percentage, 127 wins, and a 3.43 ERA. He won ten or more games in eight different years and in 1951, at the age of 36, had a 22-3 record with 19 complete games. That season he finished fifth in MVP voting. Roe made five All-Star clubs, led the league in strikeouts one season (1945), and was top ten in ERA five different years. Preacher made three starts in the postseason. In those three games he pitched three complete games, every time against the Yankees, posting a 2.54 ERA with a record of 2-1. His one loss came in 1952 when he lost the game in the 12th inning! Yes, he pitched 11.1 innings that day against a potent Yankee team.

Roe's career numbers might have merited Cooperstown consideration had he not lost a good part of his prime to World War 2 action. Almost all of his twenties were lost to military service as his first full season did not come until age 29. He also spent four seasons with the worst team in the National League at the time, the Pittsburgh Pirates. In addition, Roe had two horrific seasons in 1946 and 1947 due to an injury suffered in the 1945 offseason. The injury... Roe was coaching high school basketball during the offseason, and fractured his skull in a fight with the referee.

Preacher was known as a "smart" pitcher before the term was common lingo. He had arguably the best control in baseball during his time, and struck out a fair share of hitters. He perfected the art of pitching and not throwing. Think of him as a poor man's version of Greg Maddux. At age 34 Roe walked 44 in 212.7 innings. Maddux, at age 34, walked 42 in 249.3 innings.

Roe was also known for his eccentricity. In addition to fighting high school basketball refs, Roe refused to fly in an airplane. Not because of a fear of flying, but because it "made his head hurt." There are differing opinions on how he attained his nickname. Some say he called himself "Preacher" as early as age three because of his admiration for a local preacher. Others argue he was given the nickname because Roe never stopped talking. In a famous Sports Illustrated article after his retirement, Roe admitted to throwing a spitball. Hitters knew of this. They would often come to the plate looking for it, yet Roe said he only threw the pitch a handful of times per season to keep his reputation in tact.

It seems plausible that Roe would have made Cooperstown had he not lost key seasons to the war. Given his solid career, domination in the playoffs, and notoriety and fame in the press, I think he would have made it. Preacher won 114 games during his thirties. Of Hall of Fame starting pitchers who were non 300-game-winners, who pitched after the dead ball era, here is the win totals for their 30's.
Jim Bunning - 150
Dizzy Dean - 3
Don Drysdale - 32
Bob Feller - 89
Whitey Ford - 131
Bob Gibson - 160
Lefty Gomez - 36
Waite Hoyt - 72
Carl Hubbell - 172
Catfish Hunter - 40
Fergie Jenkins - 143
Sandy Koufax - 27
Bob Lemon - 117
Ted Lyons - 107
Juan Marichal - 99
Hal Newhouser - 22
Jim Palmer - 116
Robin Roberts - 107
Red Ruffing - 157

Tim Raines' case for the Hall of Fame

Former Montreal Expos' star Tim Raines was recently named the manager of the Newark Bears in the independent Atlantic League. After being a coach for the Chicago White Sox from 2004-06, Raines spent last year in anonymity, working as the hitting coach for the class-AA Harrisburg Senators - anonymity that will continue in 2009, as the manager for an independent league team.

Raines should be used to being anonymous, spending the best years of his career playing for (mostly) bad Montreal teams - a fact that may be seriously hurting his Hall of Fame chances. He has not gotten as much attention as other snubs, like Bert Blyleven or Ron Santo, but he might be just as deserving.
Raines is one of the top leadoff hitters in the history of baseball, and belongs in the same category as Rickey Henderson and Lou Brock. Raines would probably have been elected last year, in his first year of eligibility, if not for spending the last six years of his career as a part-time player due to injuries. Had he been a full-time player for a bit longer, he would have reached 3,000 hits and seriously challenged Brock for second all-time in stolen bases. What he did end up with was 2,605 hits and 808 stolen bases, which is good enough for fifth all time.

Those are hardly numbers to be embarrassed by, but Raines' real case lies in how ridiculously good he was in his prime. The Hall of Fame voters love counting numbers, but guys with short careers and amazing primes like Ralph Kiner and Sandy Koufax have been elected before, so there are some precedents showing that a guy like Raines could get in. Raines' career was not even short, it is just that he had a pretty sharp decline once he reached his mid-30s.

I am going to define Raines' prime as 1981-87 (the last year he hit over .300 as a full-time player). Raines was a terror on the basepaths in these years, stealing at least 70 bases in every year but '87. He was excellent in the traditional hitting stats and all over the league leader boards for most of the 1980s; he batted over .300 in five of those seven years, including a batting title in 1986; and he was in the top 10 for walks and triples every year and in the top 10 in on base percentage, runs and hits in six of the seven years.

Besides racking up stolen bases, Raines' skills as a leadoff hitter lie in his OBP, OPS and OPS+. In his prime his OBP was in the high .300s consistently, over .400 from '85-87 and he has a career mark of .385. There are some leadoff hitters like Juan Pierre who give the illusion of being good by hitting singles and stealing bases, but Raines, while not hitting a ton of home runs, was an extra-base machine. His percentage of hits that went for extra bases is 27.3; Henderson's career mark was 28 percent, while Brock is at 25 percent.

Raines was a master of not striking out. His career high in strikeouts was 83, and 966 for a career in which he came to the plate over 10,000 times. He also drew loads of walks - 1,330 in his career - an essential skill for leadoff hitters, and a major reason his OBP was as high as it was.

Lou Brock, in comparison, came to the plate over 11,000 times but drew only 761 walks and had 1,730 strikeouts.

All those extra base hits and walks gave Raines excellent OPSs; he was over .800 in six of his seven prime years, and was at .955 in 1987 - a number that high is almost unheard of for non-power hitters. His OPS+ was top 10 in those same six years, including a string of 138, 151, 145 and 149. Compare those numbers to Brock, and Raines was clearly better - Brock's best year was 146, but he was never higher than 128 in any other year. Brock was over 100 for a larger percentage of his career, but his career mark is only 109, whereas Raines' is 123 - which is getting close to leadoff-god Henderson's mark of 127.

So what does all this tell us? It's clear that Raines' prime was far and away better than Brock, and while Brock's counting stats are better than Raines', they're not that much better. A serious argument could even be made that his career as a whole was better than Brock's. Raines is at least the third-best leadoff hitter of the modern era, was one of the best hitters of the 1980s, a decade that is extremely underrepresented in the Hall of Fame and might be the best Expo of all time, a team that is destined to be just as underrepresented.

So put him in the Hall, where he belongs. His exhibit could even include a game-used vial of cocaine.

The Moose Phones It In

MOOSEPORT -- All-Star pitcher Mike Mussina has called it a career. The Moose had a stellar career piling up 270 wins, five All-Star appearances, seven Gold Gloves, and an amazing knack for finishing just short of excellence his entire career.

On the last start in the last season of his career, Mike accumulated twenty wins for the first time in eighteen seasons; the first man to win 20 in his last season since Sandy Koufax. In fact, 2008 was Moose's best season since the beginning of the Bush administration. He pitched over 200 innings, won 20 games, and had an ERA+ of 132. So with a sure-fire chance to take a team to the bank for a few more years, and a solid chance to become a member of the 300 win club and the 3,000 strikeout club, why would he retire? Simple - Moose wants to be remembered as one of the greatest pitchers to never have his mug on a plaque in Cooperstown. Or I should say, Moose does not want to be remembered at all.

Mussina said Wednesday afternoon "I was just too good last year. I worry if I put up another season like that I'll be dangerously close to Cooperstown consideration." He added "I have a real fear of speeches, and I just don't know if I can handle getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. I've always dodged the Cy Young award thank God, and I've gone too far to be getting a plaque at this stage of my life. In another couple of seasons I will amass 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts, and I just can't live with that."

Mussina managed to never quite get over the hump from great pitcher to dominating pitcher. In his career he finished with 18-19 wins five times, top six in Cy Young voting nine times, top ten in ERA eleven times, and top ten in K's ten times. However, Moose never won a Cy Young, or any other pitching award for that matter. Moose also never led the league in strikeouts or claimed an ERA title. He retired with 270 wins, a career 3.68 ERA, and 2,813 strikeouts.

Moose was stellar in 16 postseason series going 7-9 with a 3.42 ERA. Nine different seasons he pitched in October, two of which he made it to the World Series. However, Moose will retire without a World Series ring. With the Yankees being active in the free agent market and hoping to eclipse a seven trillion dollar payroll for 2009, it is more than plausible they have a good chance to win the World Series next season, and provide enough run support over the next two to three seasons for Moose to get 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. Therefore, what has Moose chased for his entire career?

It seems obvious, whatever it was, it wasn't plaques on his wall, money in his brokerage account, nor rings on his fingers. Moose, simply wanted to throw a baseball and have fun for eighteen years. History will forget Mike Mussina, and maybe he wanted it that way? His name will not echo across eternity. He did not chase immortality like Roger Clemens, he simply pitched, and pitched damn well.

So I say, when the Moose comes up for Hall of Fame induction, the writers ignore his inability to get over the hump, and recognize this is a man whose demeanor would not drive him to banned substances and backstabbing. He is a guy who does not strive off fame or recognition. This is a guy who went out and did his job, and did it damn well for eighteen seasons. Furthermore, he did it naturally for eighteen seasons against hitters on enough juice to put horses on the endangered species list. So, when Mike Mussina's name is placed on the ballot for Hall enshrinement in five years, he should not be overlooked due to trivial benchmarks of excellence. He should be enshrined, and enshrined before Roger Clemens. Not because he had a better career or less blank space on his walls, but because his ambition was always a virtue and he never allowed it to become a vice.