Outlook 2009

ATLANTA--After a long layoff, the Powers That Be are finally back and gearing up for another season. While we're not at liberty to discuss the nature of our two-month disappearance, we can tell you that we were not in LA and were not caught defecating on the car of one Paul Kinzer.

The march towards 2009 officially began last week with Camp LeoRoger, a yearly tradition that this year features many of the new faces brought in this offseason. Last years make-shift rotation that featured 10 different starters is revamped with the addition of workhorse pitchers Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. Both can consistently deliver quality starts and perhaps more importantly are almost locks to make 32 starts and toss up 200+ innings a year. Also joining the rotation is Japanese free-agent signee Kenshin Kawakami, who features an arsenal consisting of a low-90's fastball and a hammer curve. Kawakami once won the NPL's equivalent of the Cy Young, but given the often tough transition from NPL to MLB (Igawa, Kei), he'll likely be a solid if not spectacular third starter, which is exactly what the Braves need him to be. Jair Jurrjens will look to build off the success of his rookie year and provide solid pitching from the number 4 spot. The fifth starter battle will come down to a host of candidates including Charlie Morton, Jo-Jo Reyes, James Parr, Jorge Campillo, and uber-prospect Tommy Hanson. Of course, all of that could be shot to hell if the Braves sign Tom Glavine's corpse and run him out there every fifth day.

The bullpen will be largely unchanged, with Mike Gonzalez entrenched at closer, Rafael Soriano setting up (provided he can stay healthy), and Blaine Boyer as a primary middle relief man. Peter Moylan, a rock in the bullpen in 2007, should be a great help in the late innings if he returns strong from shoulder surgery. The rest of the bullpen will be comprised of parts and pieces from last year and the minors. Likely candidates include Jeff Bennett and Buddy Carlysle, who have both been terrific as mop-up men and spot-starters the last two years, worthy leftovers of the Reyes/Morton/Parr rotation battle, The Arsonist--Manny Acosta, and a slew of capable young talent in Steven Marek, Kris Medlen, Phil Stockman, and Anthony Lerew. The LOOGY battle should be interesting in that all available candidates currently on the roster have either proved nothing or proved that they are terrible. One of Eric O'Flaherty, Jeff Ridgeway, and the unilaterally despised Boone Logan will be the guy called on to attempt to minimize the damage caused by Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Carlos Delgado, Adam Dunn, and to a lesser degree Jeremy Hermida. All in all, the bullpen should be substantially better this year given the return of Moylan and the (hopeful) higher contributed innings by starters. No starter broke 200 innings last year, with Jurrjens 188 setting the bar. With the addition of two workhorses, Blaine Boyer and The Arsonist will no longer have to live in fear that their arms will detach themselves out of spite by the All-Star break.

The infield is unchanged from 2008 inspite of numerous trade rumors swirling around the middle of the infield. Escobar is still a Brave despite being dangled in Peavy trade talks for a month, and with Rafael Furcal spurning the Braves for the Dodgers while giving Frank Wren a firm middle finger salute, Kelly Johnson is at 2nd Base rather than left-field. Other than Kotchman at 1st, the infield can once again be expected to provide a bulk of the offense, with everyone but Kotch providing OPS+ over 100. Having Omar Infante as a backup to Chipper in the likely event he's out for 20 to 30 games is a luxery if he is able to perform to his numbers last year.

The outfield is a mess with no clear cut starters in left and center field. Not that having a clear cut starter in RF is a good thing given Jeff Francoeur's stellar 2008. Center field figures to be a battle between Gregor Blanco, Josh Anderson, and top-prospect Jordan Schafer. Schafer lit up the Grapefruit league last spring only to be sent back down and serve a HGH suspension. If he lives up to his potential, he should undoubtably be the starter as his ceiling is miles above anything Anderson and Blanco can provide. Blanco's real strength is in his OBP and ability to work a count, but he's purely a singles hitter, isn't an efficient basestealer, and is probably the least effective defender of the three. Anderson is a very effective basestealer and has hit well in his short time in the majors. He's likely to be the starter out of spring training until Schafer proves he is ready. Atlanta is actively pursuing Junior Griffey to (hopefully) platoon with Matt Diaz in LF. Diaz has proven he can rake in the majors if he's healthy, and Griffey still mashed righties last year inspite of his knee injuries. A platoon of Diaz and Griffey is probably the best way to go given the FO's inability to see the value in Bobby Abreau, Adam Dunn, or anyone else that carries any kind of offensive ability. Jeff Francoeur needs to revert to his 2006/2007 "not great, just mediocre, but you think I'm doing a hell of a job" form in order for the Braves to contend in 2009, which--to me--is scary as shit.

Given the massive overhaul of the rotation, the Braves stand a chance in 2009. The outfield will have to excede any and all expectations, but with the same pitching and defense concept that won in the early 90's, Atlanta should be fighting to the end. PECOTA has the Braves sitting in the 85-90 win plateau with this offseason's moves, which is not out of reach. As long as they can pull through in 1 run games for the first time since 2006, the playoffs are not out of reach.

Immediate Reaction: Vazquez to Braves

ATLANTA--Yesterday, various sources confirmed that Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan were on their way to Atlanta, as Brave's GM completed the long rumored acquisition from his home in the Wren's Nest. At first glance, this move helps solidify a shaky rotation and marks an item off the list of parts that needed to be picked up this offseason. Chicago's side of the deal is all but confirmed, pending physicals and a press conference. There are many conflicting reports as to who Atlanta gave up to complete the trade, as ESPN.com reports the deal as SS Brent Lillibridge, LHP Jo-Jo Reyes, and a minor leaguer. Foxsports.com, Sportline, and MLBTR (via the AJC's Dave O'Brian) all indicate a four-player swap, in which Atlanta would hand over Lillibridge, C Tyler Flowers, 3B Jon Gilmore, and Rookie-League pitcher Santos Rodriguez.

I find it odd that the would include Flowers in a package for Vazquez, as it seemed that his inclusion is what caused the Peavy deal to fall through. Flowers, one of the hottest hitting catching prospects this year, posted 17 homers and a .921 OPS in Class A Myrtle Beach this year and followed that up by mashing 12 homers in 20 games with the Mesa Solar Sox. He's shown the ability to play 1B, long a position of continuity that has eluded the Braves, and it would make sense to keep him in the system as insurance that 18 year old phenom Freddie Freeman doesn't pan out.

The first scenario, though seemingly much more unlikely as more reports come out, is much more favorable to Atlanta, though Flowers is still likely to be a part of the deal. Reyes, the Braves' best major league ready prospect at the beginning of 2008, struggled with his control and homers throughout the season, though he did show flashes of brilliance. Still, his loss could be afforded by a team relatively thick with low-expectation, major-league ready pitching in Charlie Morton, James Parr, Chuck James, and, if healthy, Anthony Lerew, not to mention the dominant Tommy Hanson.

The second scenario is a little tougher to swallow, as the Braves not only give up Flowers but also Jon Gilmore, the 19 year-old 3B prospect out of Iowa. Gilmore projects to have great raw power and plate discipline once he develops while already being a consistent bat, hitting .291 over two seasons including .337 in Danville before getting a cup of coffee with low-A Rome. Losing a low-A, projectable player is generally an acceptable cost; however, the Braves now have to find another player in the draft to replace Gilmore and his gifted athleticism as the heir-apparant to an old and frequently battered Chipper Jones. Gilmore figured to break in around 2011--about the time Chipper hit 40, and the two prospects above him in the pecking order--Van Pope and Eric Campbell--each have their flaws. Pope possesses an outstanding glove, but struggles at the plate, hitting .237 in Mississippi this year. Campbell has exceptional talent and athleticism, but has struggled off the field, including a suspension handed down by the organization, and is being exposed to the Rule V draft (though unlikely he'd be taken given the off field troubles).

As for Javy Vazquez being a Brave--I'm elated. He's a guy who showed great stuff and the ability to eat innings while toiling for terrible Montreal teams. While he's not the ace, or likely even the number two, that Wren was looking for, he's a solid addition. He continues to eat innings (would top 200+ nine straight years if not for coming two short in 2004) as well as still having great stuff, as he still averages over 8 K's per 9 and usually only walks 2-3 per 9. He's generally hard to hit (Top 10 in H/9 3 times since 2001) as well as posting good WHIP numbers from year to year. Furthermore, a return to the senior circuit where he could face a pitcher three times a game as well as not facing the stacked offenses of the AL could do him significant good.

The other piece the Braves receive, Boone Logan, is a guy I hope I don't have to write about much when the season begins. I can see myself getting pissed off everytime he enters the game. Think 2008 Royce Ring. But with a weaker beard, a weaker name, and weaker stuff. I see him being inducted into the HOS by July.

This trade should do the Braves some short-term good over the next two years, as Vazquez is likely to deliver 200+ innings of sub-4.00 ball, while posting close to 200 K's and around 60 BB's, all while making a manageable $11.7 million a year. The Braves gave up three guys who weren't going to see the bigs by 2010 or 2011, and a utility infielder who was blocked and fell off the cliff last year splitting time between AAA and Atlanta. The long-term assessment depends on how Flowers and Gilmore develop. If these two become even .270/20 guys, this deal may be much harder to swallow three or four years from now if the acquisition fails to help lead Atlanta back to the playoffs.